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CLASSIC DRIVERS OF BOND YIELDS PUSH HIGHER

Better economic growth and higher inflation expectations are driving confidence in the trajectory of the global economy. Lower yields and lingering price pressures still point to a very low-return environment for high-quality bonds in 2015. The combination of corporate and Treasury supply may keep headwinds on bond investors.

HAMMER FLAT: MIDYEAR BOND MARKET OUTLOOK

We continue to expect roughly flat bond returns for 2015, as the choppy market environment witnessed over the first half of 2015 continues. The challenging, low-return environment confronting bond investors is likely to persist.

MUNICIPAL CHALLENGES

We see a potentially brighter future ahead for municipal bonds, despite a difficult second quarter thus far, due to still attractive valuations, higher yields, and a favorable summer seasonal period. A low-single-digit total return is plausible given our expectation for a modest rise in interest rates coupled with valuation improvement relative to Treasuries.

BOND TUG-OF-WAR

Lingering uncertainty over Greece, U.S. economic growth, and the Fed may continue to create a tug-of-war on bond prices that will likely continue to lead to a low-return environment. We believe additional bond market strength is likely limited.

KNOW YOUR BREAKEVEN

A lack of liquidity continues to plague the bond market, as indicated by elevated dealer holdings of long-term bonds and light trading volume. Volatility may remain elevated in the short term. Knowing your breakeven can help bond investors assess how resistant their current portfolio is to rising interest rates, and identify areas that offer value.

 
Results: 13 Articles found.
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