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Disinflation Infatuation

Inflation expectations have fallen sharply in recent weeks, driven by European disinflation, lower energy prices, and overall growth concerns. The persistence of low inflation expectations may intensify the “lower for longer” theme via lower growth expectations and delays to potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.

Slowing Momentum

A challenging bond market environment will likely persist over the remainder of the year and perhaps beyond. Valuations across many bond sectors remain above historical averages and reflect an expensive market. We believe corporate bonds may provide investors with the best defense in what will likely be a continuation of the low-return environment.

The State of States

A change of seasons should be noted by municipal investors, as a seasonal increase in new issuance may be a catalyst to lower returns after a strong 2014. It is not uncommon for revenues to slow as the economy matures, and we do not view the slowdown in state tax revenues as worrisome for municipal bond investors.

Fed Nerves

Despite recent weakness, bonds continue to discount the pace and magnitude of Fed rate hikes. A few facets of this week’s Fed meeting may reveal whether the recent pullback in bonds continues to stabilize.​

Growth Signals

The combination of additional cuts to overnight borrowing rates and the announcement of the ABS purchase program was slightly more than expected from the ECB. Bond markets sent growth signals in response to ECB action in the form of higher yields, higher inflation expectations, and a steeper yield curve.​

 
Results: 19 Articles found.
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