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Results: 47 Articles found.

MARKET’S MARCH MADNESS

The NCAA Men’s College Basketball Final Four is set. In that spirit, we share our own Final Four for the stock market this year: China, earnings, the Federal Reserve (Fed), and oil.

EUROPE — NOT ENOUGH GROWTH

Forecasts for European corporate earnings have become increasingly pessimistic.

WILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL?

The bull market turns seven. During that seven-year period, the S&P 500 nearly tripled, gaining 194% in price and producing a total return of 241%.

WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?

We see enough factors supporting gold to justify a modest allocation in suitable portfolios.

OIL, OIL, EVERYWHERE BUT NOT A DROP TO BUY?

Despite the modest size of the energy sector (typically less than 10% of total market capitalization), crude oil and the broader stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, have had very high correlation during the past few months.

CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: MODEST DETERIORATION IN SENTIMENT

Our Corporate Beige Book highlights modest deterioration in corporate sentiment.

DATA-DRIVEN PERSPECTIVE ON A ROUGH START TO 2016

It has been a rough start to 2016 for the stock market. In fact, it’s been one of the worst starts to a year in the history of the S&P 500.

WHAT A NON-RECESSIONARY BEAR MIGHT LOOK LIKE

Bear markets can occur without recessions. There have been ten bear markets in the S&P 500 since 1968, and four of them occurred without an accompanying recession.

FEAR FEBRUARY AFTER JITTERY JANUARY?

Don’t worry about the January Barometer, which says, “As goes January, so goes the year.”

FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS

The Five Forecasters still favor the continuation of the current bull market and no recession.

ANY BULLS LEFT?

The number of bulls is dwindling. In periods of extreme market volatility such as we have experienced in recent weeks

CAN EARNINGS HELP?

The start of fourth quarter earnings season may help the stock market find its footing.

TURNING THE PAGE

It was a lackluster 2015 for the stock market with the S&P 500 managing a total return of just 1.4% (dividends included).

FINALLY

Finally! For the first time in nine years, the Fed finally raised interest rates.

NO PAIN, NO GAIN: 2016 MAY REQUIRE TOLERANCE FOR VOLATILITY

Gains in 2016 may require tolerance for volatility. Stocks historically have offered a tradeoff of higher return for higher risk...

FED IMPLICATIONS

stocks to navigate the eventual start of the Fed rate hike cycle with the benefit of a continued U.S. economic expansion and earnings gains in the months ahead. Although Fed stimulus and low interest rates have played a role in fueling the current bull market, earnings growth has been a far bigger factor.​

SHOULD EMERGING MARKET INVESTORS FIGHT THE FED?

Fighting the Fed may be a winnable battle for EM. EM valuations are compelling and, in our view, have priced in a fair amount of risk. We see sufficient upside potential to maintain modest EM equity allocations despite significant growth challenges.

CONSULTING OUR TECHNICAL PLAYBOOK

In challenging market environments, technical analysis tools can help us make better investment decisions. Our technical playbook suggests recent market weakness may present a buying opportunity. We are mindful of risks that might impact our playbook, including a potential China hard landing or a central bank policy mistake.

12 QUESTIONS FOR A 12% CORRECTION

This week we answer the top 12 investor questions in response to the S&P 500’s 12% correction. We expect the U.S. economic expansion and bull market may continue through year-end, despite the latest stock market correction and China uncertainty. We reiterate our forecast for stocks to produce midto high-single-digit returns in 2015.

THE MARKET DOWNTURN IS HERE, NOW WHAT?

As a bull market matures over the second half of an economic expansion, periods of increased market volatility are likely to become more common. Periods of volatility bouts will likely create a more challenging environment for investors, and in the short term, sentiment can control markets as investor sensitivity to certain risks spikes. We believe the macroeconomic fundamentals and the dynamism of American corporations are likely to drive further stock market gains.

WHAT WE CAN LEARN BY GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

Expectations for the back to school shopping season are low, and this season may only be flat versus last year. Several consumer spending tailwinds suggest the consumer discretionary sector may be poised to outperform through year-end.

OIL’S LONG BOTTOMING PROCESS

The additional supply expected from Iran and the slow response by producers to reduce supply may lengthen oil’s stay in the $5 0– 60 range. We have tempered our previous enthusiasm for the energy sector and at current oil price levels view it as a market performer.

Q2 EARNINGS PREVIEW

Q2 earnings season may look a lot like Q1 as companies once again face the twin drags of the energy downturn and strong U.S. dollar. Corporate America may impress in other ways, such as its resilience to the latest Greece and China flare-ups. As earning season progresses, we will watch for evidence that earnings will accelerate in the second half.

GREECE PLAYBOOK

The referendum result this weekend throws Greece’s future in the currency union firmly in doubt. Here we address the question of whether the heightened risk of a Greek exit from the Eurozone might lead to contagion for global markets. We do not believe Greece is another “Lehman moment” and it may present an attractive buying opportunity for European equities.

DEBUNKING DOW THEORY

We do not believe transports’ weakness is a signal of an impending economic and market downturn. Historical data suggest transports’ underperformance may actually be signaling a buying opportunity for the S&P 500 rather than a sell. We believe transports present an attractive investment opportunity for the second half of 2015.

BATTERIES NOT INCLUDED: MIDYEAR STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

We believe corporate America will provide a much needed boost for the second half — providing the seventh year of positive returns in 2015, in the 5 – 9% range we forecast. Our forecast is based on expected mid-single-digit EPS growth for S&P 500 companies, supported by improved global economic growth, stable profit margins, and share buybacks in 2015, with limited help from valuation expansion.

ACA RULING COULD MAKE HEALTHCARE SECTOR MORE AFFORDABLE

The upcoming ACA Supreme Court decision may create a buying opportunity for the healthcare sector. We believe the odds favor the status quo, meaning that any selling pressure related to the risk of losing insured patients may present a buying opportunity.

GLOBAL EARNINGS UPDATE: THE TIDE IS TURNING

European earnings have surprised on the upside while guidance has led to rising estimates, contributing to strong recent performance by European stocks. Japan’s first quarter revenue growth outpaced both the U.S. and Europe, while Japanese companies beat revenue forecasts at a solid rate.

THE GREEK DRAMA

Greece is unlikely to maintain its debt repayment schedule without a resolution. A default and a Greek exit may add volatility to the equity markets, but do not appear to present a systemic risk at this point.

LETTERMAN TRIBUTE: TOP 10 KEYS FOR STOCKS

This week we pay tribute to David Letterman’s last Late Show with our own top 10 list: the top 10 keys for stocks. A potential snapback in the U.S. economy is the number one issue for the stock market, but here we list nine other issues that will be important in determining where stocks go in the near term.

EARNINGS RECAP: GOOD ENOUGH?

The S&P 500 is on track to post year-over-year earnings growth of about 2% in the first quarter — a solid result considering the significant drags from the oil downturn and strong U.S. dollar. Healthcare led the upside, followed by energy, technology, and financials, while industrials struggled.

EMERGING MARKETS MAY MAKE A GOOD DRAFT PICK TO ADD TO PORTFOLIOS

We believe emerging markets (EM) score well when evaluated along some of the same criteria that NFL football teams use to assess potential draft picks: speed, strength, value, upside potential, and character. According to our evaluation, EM scores very well on the first four metrics, and the fifth — character — is sufficiently discounted in terms of policy and corporate governance risks. EM may make a good draft pick to add to your portfolios.

RISK MARCHES ON

Investors continued to embrace risk this past week as the Nasdaq reached a new high while peripheral European bonds and emerging market equities rallied. Regional economic growth continues to diverge but slowly moves ahead, largely pushed by internal demand and supported by liberal monetary policy.

SIZING UP SMALL CAPS

The Russell 2000 Index hit a fresh all-time high last week (on tax day, April 15, 2015) and has outpaced large caps by 205 basis points (2.05%) year to date. Although valuations are on the high side, the factors that have driven recent small cap strength, in our view, remain largely intact. Small cap technicals appear bullish, with positive relative strength and an upward sloping 40-week moving average.​

CHINA: NEW YEAR, NEW OPPORTUNITY?

Regardless of whether China hits its 7% GDP target for Q1, its stock market has already been positive so far this year. Despite strong recent performance, Chinese stocks may see further gains. We maintain our positive view of broad EM, with a preference for Asia.

Portfolio Compass 3/25/15

A snapshot of LPL Financial Research’s views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes. This biweekly publication illustrates our current views and will change as needed over a 3- to 12-month time horizon.

NAVIGATING THE MARKETS 1/26

We are initiating a master limited partnership (MLP) view (neutral/positive) and introducing several new alternative investment categories. ƒƒUpgrading technology and industrials to positive and munis (int.) to neutral/positive.

 
Results: 47 Articles found.
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