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THE MARKET DOWNTURN IS HERE, NOW WHAT?

As a bull market matures over the second half of an economic expansion, periods of increased market volatility are likely to become more common. Periods of volatility bouts will likely create a more challenging environment for investors, and in the short term, sentiment can control markets as investor sensitivity to certain risks spikes. We believe the macroeconomic fundamentals and the dynamism of American corporations are likely to drive further stock market gains.

WHAT WE CAN LEARN BY GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

Expectations for the back to school shopping season are low, and this season may only be flat versus last year. Several consumer spending tailwinds suggest the consumer discretionary sector may be poised to outperform through year-end.

EARNINGS UPDATE: CORPORATE RESILIENCE

We expect another quarterly earnings gain in the second quarter despite the drags from oil and the U.S. dollar. Improved global growth, lower energy costs, and effective cost controls have supported overall results. Although forward estimates have edged lower, we continue to expect earnings growth to accelerate during the second half of the year.

OIL’S LONG BOTTOMING PROCESS

The additional supply expected from Iran and the slow response by producers to reduce supply may lengthen oil’s stay in the $5 0– 60 range. We have tempered our previous enthusiasm for the energy sector and at current oil price levels view it as a market performer.

Q2 EARNINGS PREVIEW

Q2 earnings season may look a lot like Q1 as companies once again face the twin drags of the energy downturn and strong U.S. dollar. Corporate America may impress in other ways, such as its resilience to the latest Greece and China flare-ups. As earning season progresses, we will watch for evidence that earnings will accelerate in the second half.

 
Results: 13 Articles found.
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