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BREAKOUT

This week we look at some interesting, under-the-radar breakouts in the economy and markets. The breakout in economic surprises is a positive sign for the stock market and cyclical sectors. The breakout in valuations suggests only potential moderate gains for stocks in the near term.

MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2016: CAMPAIGNING FOR MORE INVESTMENT

We expect mid-single- digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2016, consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance, driven by a second half earnings rebound. Key risks include a policy mistake from Washington or the Fed, geopolitics, and a surprising pickup in inflation. Bouts of volatility are likely

Q2 2016 EARNINGS PREVIEW: BETTER TIMES AHEAD?

The earnings recession will likely continue with second quarter results, which will begin to be reported this week. Better times may lie ahead: U.S. economic growth has started to pick up, the drags from the U.S. dollar and oil are starting to abate, and Brexit appears unlikely to hurt U.S. companies much.

BREXIT REFLECTIONS

The Brexit’s impacts on earnings and U.S. stocks may be limited; we maintain our 2016 year-end S&P 500 forecast for mid-singledigit returns.* However, uncertainty in Europe, seasonal weakness, and the U.S. presidential election

OVERCOMING A WALL OF WORRIES

We look at three reasons to be fearful of future economic and stock market returns, and three reasons why the fears may be overblown. In the face of some recent bad news and growing investor worries, the S&P 500 is still only 2.8% away from a new all-time high.

BREXIT: SHOULD THEY STAY OR SHOULD THEY GO?

The United Kingdom votes on June 23 on whether to remain or exit the European Union (Brexit). Financial markets had been confident the U.K. would remain, though very recent polling data have created uncertainty.​

A LOOK AT THE GAAP GAP

This week we take a look at the “GAAP gap,” the gap between reported and operating earnings. The gap today is largely energy driven, and we see little in earnings data that might indicate a broader market downturn.

JAM-PACKED JUNE

June is jam-packed with major market events that may go a long way toward determining the direction of the

SPINNING OUR WHEELS

The S&P 500 celebrated the one-year anniversary of its all-time high on May 21, 2016. One-year periods without new highs during bull markets have often preceded strong stock market gains.

CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: SENTIMENT MIXED

Our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for the first quarter earnings period provides a mixed picture.

WHAT MIGHT TRUMP THE ELECTION YEAR PATTERN?

This week we look at what the upcoming presidential election may mean for markets in 2016.

IS SELL IN MAY JUST A CLICHÉ?

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited cliché in stock market history.

VALUE COMEBACK?

Value stocks have staged a comeback versus growth after a long losing streak.

TAKING STOCK AFTER THE RALLY

Stocks have had quite a nice run. Since the February 11, 2016 lows the S&P 500 has gained 14%. The rally...​

EMERGING MARKET EARNINGS: IS THE TIDE TURNING?

After disappointing investors last year, emerging market earnings forecasts may finally be consistent with what can be delivered.

Q1 2016 EARNINGS PREVIEW: NO MORE EXCUSES

First quarter earnings results will not be very exciting, but the earnings trajectory may be at a trough.​

EARNINGS UPDATE: CORPORATE RESILIENCE

We expect another quarterly earnings gain in the second quarter despite the drags from oil and the U.S. dollar. Improved global growth, lower energy costs, and effective cost controls have supported overall results. Although forward estimates have edged lower, we continue to expect earnings growth to accelerate during the second half of the year.

 
Results: 17 Articles found.
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