Skip to Content

Online Banking

the right bank TM

Investing News

Category:
 
Results: 58 Articles found.

MUNICIPAL SUPPLY SURGE

The municipal bond market is dealing with a surge of supply of epic proportions, both from new issuance and existing supply in the secondary market. Historically, supply surges have often led to imbalances that resulted in price declines, but municipal bond prices have only showed minor cracks so far.​

EM EARNINGS: BEGINNING TO EMERGE

Earnings growth across emerging market (EM) equities has been positive in contrast to the decline in earnings and earnings expectations in developed international markets.

FOMC FAQs: WILL THEY OR WON’T THEY?

The Fed holds its sixth of eight FOMC meetings of 2016 this Tuesday and Wednesday, September 20 – 21, 2016. With a rate hike unlikely, the Fed may begin to prepare the markets for a hike in December.

TANTRUM BREWING?

We do not see the recent rise in Treasury yields as the start of another “taper tantrum” bond sell-off. Several diverse factors pushed Treasury yields higher last week, but their ability to persist is questionable.

SELL NOW?

This year’s stock market gains, the age of the bull market, and valuations beg the question, should investors sell stocks now?

BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODEST ECONOMIC GROWTH

At +55, the September 2016 Beige Book Barometer reading is now back in the middle of the range it has been in since early 2012, suggesting modest economic growth may continue.

AUGUST RECAP

Mixed messages from the Fed and middle of the road economic data kept Treasury yields in a very tight trading range throughout August. Economically sensitive sectors continued to rally in August, while high-quality bonds lagged as Treasury yields moved toward the upper end of their recent range.

DIVIDEND BUBBLE?

Dividend stocks have garnered support as investors increasingly use stock dividends as a substitute for fixed income in the low interest rate environment. Friday’s slightly weaker than expected jobs report may add to the enthusiasm for dividend-paying equities.

A SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER?

September is full of potentially influential market and economic events. Central bank meetings, presidential debates, and an emergency meeting for OPEC are some of the events we’ll be watching.

A DEEPER LOOK AT THE RISE IN LIBOR

3-month U.S. dollar Libor has increased by 0.2% over the past two months, which carries almost the same impact as a full rate hike, even though the Fed has not raised rates since December 2015. Investors in bank loans may benefit if Libor continues to rise, given that the floating rates may start to move higher once the 1% Libor floor that many issues carry is exceeded.

CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: Q2 OFFERS FEW SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT

Our analysis of second quarter earnings conference call transcripts suggests little improvement in corporate sentiment. Most management teams see only a minimal short-term impact from Brexit outside of currencies. Foreign currency remained a drag and low oil prices are still in focus.

DEFICIT? WHAT DEFICIT?

The structural and demographic problems that will drive the deficit higher over the next several decades remain in place, “but are receiving relatively little attention from policymakers and markets.” The longer policymakers wait to address them, the more difficult they become.

IS FOREIGN DEMAND FADING?

Foreign demand has helped drive Treasury yields lower and support prices over the past year, though increasing hedging costs may prove problematic moving forward. Demand from indirect bidders continues to be strong at Treasury auctions, muddying the argument that higher hedging costs may cause foreign demand to weaken.

WHAT THE MARKET IS TELLING US ABOUT THE ELECTION

This week we look at what stocks may be telling us about the presidential election. The relative lack of volatility this summer may indicate increasing odds the market is assigning to a Clinton victory. We also look at what some politically sensitive industry groups may be telling us about the election outcome.

FISCAL POLICY — STRING THEORY

Global policymakers initially countered the financial crisis with both monetary and fiscal policy; but monetary policy has been the tool of choice more recently. Fiscal policy tools are now being more actively considered.

THE PRICE OF SAFETY

Slow growth and negative interest rate policies have created an environment where it is difficult for bond investors to find value. The stretch for yield has caused income investors to take on more risk, and has stretched valuations of less traditional income sectors as well.

OVERSEEING POOR EARNINGS OVERSEAS

Corporate earnings, the most important factor in market performance, were poor in developed foreign markets last quarter. Forecasts for future earnings have been improving in emerging markets and Europe, but have declined dramatically for Japan. Strength out of the German DAX could be one clue that better times are ahead for Europe.

CAPEX CONUNDRUM

Like many other categories of GDP, business capital spending in the economic recovery that began in mid-2009 has lagged prior recoveries. Businesses must have the confidence to spend now for our economy to thrive in the years ahead.

HAS ANYTHING CHANGED?

A strong July employment report caused Treasury yields to spike higher, but the broader message from the bond market has not changed. Improvement in economic data will need to exhibit greater consistency to exert meaningful upside pressure to bond yields.

EARNINGS UPDATE: WE WERE HOPING FOR MORE

We were hoping for more out of corporate America this earnings season. Although the numbers have not been great, there have been some encouraging signs. The tech sector has produced solid results and forward estimates have been resilient.

EUROPEAN BANKS: NEITHER A BORROWER NOR LENDER BE

Banks everywhere are under pressure from the low interest rate environment. Corporate financing in Europe goes through banks, not the capital markets, making banks more important to the system. Monetary policy in Europe has just begun to increase bank lending, which historically has resulted in higher stock prices for banks, though the full impact of negative interest rates is difficult to determine.

HIGH-YIELD RALLY CONTINUES DESPITE HEADWINDS

High-yield has continued to rally recently despite weaker oil prices. Investors can still potentially benefit from a small allocation due to the asset class’s notable yield in a low-yield environment. Caution remains warranted, as oil may again drive the market.

SEE YOU IN SEPTEMBER?

We continue to expect that the Fed won’t raise rates until the December 2016 meeting, but a potential path to a September hike also exists. Key items to watch for a possible September hike include U.S. manufacturing, financial conditions, the labor market, wage inflation, foreign central banks, and comments from key Fed officials.

TIME FOR AN AUGUST SWOON?

We continue to expect an improving economic backdrop in the second half and a stock market with the potential for more new highs before year-end. However, growing near-term concerns are making the odds of some type of a late summer correction more likely.

HIGH-YIELD MUNICIPAL UPDATE

Broad bond market strength coupled with strong investor demand for yield has driven year-to-date strength in high-yield municipal bonds. We remain neutral on high-yield municipal bonds as more expensive valuations and greater interest rate sensitivity offsets above-average yields.

FOLLOW THE LEADERS

The LEI provides a valuable monthly guidepost regarding the state of the current economic expansion. Looking at past and present readings of the LEI provides added context for the potential direction of the U.S. economy. Despite a recent weak reading, we do not think the LEI is signaling a recession in the near term, although global and policy risks remain.

BREAKOUT

This week we look at some interesting, under-the-radar breakouts in the economy and markets. The breakout in economic surprises is a positive sign for the stock market and cyclical sectors. The breakout in valuations suggests only potential moderate gains for stocks in the near term.

MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2016: BELIEVING IN THE POTENTIAL OF THE U.S. ECONOMY

Looking out into the second half of the year, we expect the U.S. economy may grow between 2.0% and 2.5%. Given both the direct and indirect impacts of Brexit on the U.S. economy and financial system, we are now expecting the Fed to raise rates just once this year.

MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2016: CAMPAIGNING FOR MORE INVESTMENT

We expect mid-single- digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2016, consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance, driven by a second half earnings rebound. Key risks include a policy mistake from Washington or the Fed, geopolitics, and a surprising pickup in inflation. Bouts of volatility are likely

Q2 2016 EARNINGS PREVIEW: BETTER TIMES AHEAD?

The earnings recession will likely continue with second quarter results, which will begin to be reported this week. Better times may lie ahead: U.S. economic growth has started to pick up, the drags from the U.S. dollar and oil are starting to abate, and Brexit appears unlikely to hurt U.S. companies much.

WHAT’S AHEAD FOR THE U.K. & EUROPE?

Following its vote to the leave, the U.K. will need to enter negotiations with the EU regarding the terms of the exit. The terms regarding movement of people across borders and the trade relationship will be the focus of the negotiations. In addition to political uncertainty in the U.K., there are several other political events across Europe in 2016–2017 that we’ll be watching.

BREXIT & BONDS

High-quality bond strength is unlikely to fade soon, if history is a guide. A greater likelihood of central banks remaining marketfriendly for longer would provide fundamental support for high-quality bonds and the lower for longer theme.

BREXIT REFLECTIONS

The Brexit’s impacts on earnings and U.S. stocks may be limited; we maintain our 2016 year-end S&P 500 forecast for mid-singledigit returns.* However, uncertainty in Europe, seasonal weakness, and the U.S. presidential election

BREXIT BREAKDOWN

The surprising outcome of the Brexit vote has led to uncertainty for markets and global economies. How long this uncertainty persists will likely determine the extent of any negative impact to the U.S. economy.

MUNICIPALS BUCK THE SEASONAL TREND

Municipal bonds have dodged a seasonally weak June period, with notable gains so far in June 2016. A strong first half of June has pushed yields on 10- and 30-year municipal bonds to all-time lows, which should temper investor expectations for seasonal strength over July and August

OVERCOMING A WALL OF WORRIES

We look at three reasons to be fearful of future economic and stock market returns, and three reasons why the fears may be overblown. In the face of some recent bad news and growing investor worries, the S&P 500 is still only 2.8% away from a new all-time high.

TRADING PLACES: THE BREXIT, THE U.K., AND THE EU

Thursday’s “Brexit” vote, during which the U.K. will vote to stay or leave the EU, has had considerable impact on the markets recently. The pattern from similar recent votes suggests that the chances of the U.K. staying are greater than the polls suggest.

BOND MARKET MESSAGES

The market is only pricing in a 23% chance of a rate hike by July, though Fed messaging continues to point toward a summer hike. The yield curve continues to indicate that the bond market is not yet comfortable with more rate hikes.

BREXIT: SHOULD THEY STAY OR SHOULD THEY GO?

The United Kingdom votes on June 23 on whether to remain or exit the European Union (Brexit). Financial markets had been confident the U.K. would remain, though very recent polling data have created uncertainty.​

FOMC FAQs: ALL ABOUT THE DOT PLOTS

The Fed holds its fourth of eight FOMC meetings of 2016 this Tuesday and Wednesday, June 14 – 15, 2016. With a rate hike unlikely, the FOMC’s “dot plots” will likely be at the center of attention.

ECB CORPORATE PURCHASE PROGRAM

The ECB’s corporate bond purchase program will officially kick off this week, but potential impacts have largely been priced in

A LOOK AT THE GAAP GAP

This week we take a look at the “GAAP gap,” the gap between reported and operating earnings. The gap today is largely energy driven, and we see little in earnings data that might indicate a broader market downturn.

6/6/16 BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing near its long-term trend. Oil production continues to weigh on economic conditions in the energy-producing states.

EARNINGS UPDATE: CORPORATE RESILIENCE

We expect another quarterly earnings gain in the second quarter despite the drags from oil and the U.S. dollar. Improved global growth, lower energy costs, and effective cost controls have supported overall results. Although forward estimates have edged lower, we continue to expect earnings growth to accelerate during the second half of the year.

Be Prepared: Tips for Caring for an Ill or Elderly Parent

Illness or disability can come without warning. If you are faced with taking on the responsibility of caring for an aging parent or ailing loved one, these checklists may serve as a starting point for organizing your thoughts and building the network of financial, medical and other resources that can help.

Doing Good When Doing Well: Philanthropy and the Affluent Family

In order to choose the most advantageous charitable giving strategy, individuals and families must evaluate a number of factors, such as their need for current income, their desire to control and preserve assets during life and after death, their specific charitable intent, as well as important tax management issues.

BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODEST ECONOMIC GROWTH

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a “modest or moderate” pace that is at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward pressure on wages is beginning to emerge. Optimism on Main Street remains high despite the recent barrage of bad news on the economy.

How Much Do You Need to Retire?

Americans used to count on a pension plus Social Security to get them through their “golden years.” But times have changed. Today defined benefit pension plans are becoming much less common, people change jobs more often and most manage their own retirement funds through defined contribution plans.

Reduce Debt, the Systematic Way

In America today, carrying some debt is unavoidable but how much debt is tool much? Assess your debt and begin reducing it with three easy steps .

Inflation Happens: Don’t Let It Derail Your Long-Term Plans

A penny saved is a penny earned, right? Not necessarily. Thanks to inflation, over time that penny could be worth less than when it was first dropped into the piggy bank. That’s why if you're investing—especially for major goals years away, such as retirement—you can’t afford to ignore the corrosive effect rising prices can have on the value of your assets.

Federal and State College Financial Aid Programs

The cost of financing a college education can be daunting to many families. The good news is that a family does not have to be in a low-income bracket to qualify for many current aid programs.

Enhancing Charitable Gifts With Life Insurance

If you are a regular donor to charity, life insurance could help you to make a much larger gift to your cause of choice.1 Instead of making periodic cash contributions to a charity, you could use the same amount to pay the premium on a life insurance policy to benefit the charity. Upon your death, the charity would receive the full face value of your policy—which would likely amount to considerably more than you could afford to donate during your lifetime.

Managing Health Care Costs: Tips for Small Businesses

Employer-sponsored health insurance is considered by business owners and employees alike to be one of the most important benefits available in the workplace today. Yet skyrocketing costs are making it more difficult for small businesses to attract and retain skilled workers with the promise of health insurance

Understanding Your Retirement Income Replacement Ratio

Although the term retirement income replacement ratio sounds formidable, it’s actually a simple, understandable concept that doesn’t require any fancy math. The ratio helps you zero in on your retirement savings goal and periodically measure your progress as you move toward your target. Will you need 60%, 75%, 90% or even 100% of the income you have in your last year of work to maintain a desirable standard of living after you retire?

Investing Through Life’s Stages

Read this simple guide on how to get started in investing and how to reassess your investment strategies through multiple life changes.

Kids & Money: Nurturing Your Child’s Financial Growth

Most kids learn the basics of money and making change in elementary school, but probably won’t learn how to manage money unless they choose finance as a career path. That means it is up to all of us to see that our children reach adulthood prepared to face life’s fiscal challenges.

Keeping Up With Your IRA: Tax Season Tips

If you’re one of the millions of Americans who owns either a traditional individual retirement account (IRA) or a Roth IRA, then the approach of tax season should serve as a reminder to review your retirement savings strategies and make any changes that will enhance your prospects for long-term financial security. It’s also a good time to open an IRA if you don’t already have one.

Maintain a Good Credit Rating

For better or for worse, the American way of financial life relies on debt as a way of solidifying a desired lifestyle. Therefore, it is important to establish a good credit history if you intend on making more substantial, debt-financed purchases in the future.

 
Results: 58 Articles found.
Securities Offered Through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Insurance products offered thru LPL Financial or its licensed affiliates. Nodaway Valley Bank and NVIS are not registered broker/dealers and are not affiliated with LPL Financial.

 Not FDIC Insured
 No Bank Guarantee
 May Lose Value
 Not a Deposit
 Not Insured by any Federal Government Agency

The LPL Financial registered representative associated with this site may only discuss and/or transact securities business with residents of the following states: CA, IA, KS, KY, MO, NE, NJ.