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IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE PART TWO?

Valuations are elevated, but there is very little relationship between stock valuations and performance in the short term. Consumer confidence breaking out to new post-recession highs confirms the bull market in equities.

CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: BETTER TONE, LITTLE ELECTION TALK

Our analysis of third quarter earnings conference call transcripts indicates sentiment among corporate executives improved. For all of the media attention on the U.S. election, corporate executives spent surprisingly little time on the topic during earnings conference calls.

HOLIDAY SHOPPING PREVIEW

The National Retail Federation, a trade organization for retailers that tallies up holiday shopping totals each year, forecasts a 3.6% increase in holiday shopping this year. We see several reasons to expect consumers to potentially open up their wallets this holiday season, including low financial obligations, steady job and wage gains, and high consumer confidence.

WHAT A WEEK

We reflect on last week’s surprising stock market reaction to Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory. The S&P 500 gained 3.8% last week, its best since October of 2014. The Dow Industrials and small cap Russell 2000 delivered their best weeks since December of 2011.

EARNINGS UPDATE: END OF A LONG DROUGHT

The earnings recession was not quite as long as the Cubs’ World Series drought, but we — like Cubs fans — are glad the drought is over. Corporate America ended its earnings drought in style, with S&P 500 earnings tracking to a 4% year-over-year increase for Q3 2016, well above prior estimates.

HALLOWEEN SPECIAL: WHAT MIGHT SCARE MARKETS

Many measures of investor sentiment indicate widespread uncertainty about the direction of markets. The age of the bull market, U.S. elections, the possibility of a mistake by central banks, U.S. dollar strength, Brexit, and China’s debt problems all seem to have the potential to scare markets.

ELECTION PLAYBOOK

n our election playbook, we discuss some investments that could possibly receive an election boost. Some areas that may fare better under Clinton include: alternative energy, emerging markets, and healthcare services. Some areas that could potentially get a boost from a Trump presidency include: biotech/ pharmaceuticals, energy, and financials.

TAKING STOCK OF TECHNICALS AND SENTIMENT

Longer-term technical indicators on equities continue to look very strong. Overall market sentiment could be a nice contrarian reason to remain bullish.

THIRD QUARTER 2016 EARNINGS PREVIEW: GROWTH RETURNS?

We believe the earnings recession may have ended in the third quarter. We expect potential upside to third quarter estimates due to supportive economic data, stable oil prices, and U.S. dollar stability​

WELCOME TO THE FOURTH QUARTER

Historically, the best quarter of the year is upon us. Although October has been strong recently, we expect the volatility that began in late September to continue.

FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS

Our Five Forecasters are collectively sending mostly mid-cycle signals. The Leading Economic Index, yield curve, and market breadth are all signaling the continuation of the economic expansion and bull market. Stock market valuations and the ISM Manufacturing Index are flashing some warning signs that are worth watching.

EM EARNINGS: BEGINNING TO EMERGE

Earnings growth across emerging market (EM) equities has been positive in contrast to the decline in earnings and earnings expectations in developed international markets.

SELL NOW?

This year’s stock market gains, the age of the bull market, and valuations beg the question, should investors sell stocks now?

DIVIDEND BUBBLE?

Dividend stocks have garnered support as investors increasingly use stock dividends as a substitute for fixed income in the low interest rate environment. Friday’s slightly weaker than expected jobs report may add to the enthusiasm for dividend-paying equities.

CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: Q2 OFFERS FEW SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT

Our analysis of second quarter earnings conference call transcripts suggests little improvement in corporate sentiment. Most management teams see only a minimal short-term impact from Brexit outside of currencies. Foreign currency remained a drag and low oil prices are still in focus.

WHAT THE MARKET IS TELLING US ABOUT THE ELECTION

This week we look at what stocks may be telling us about the presidential election. The relative lack of volatility this summer may indicate increasing odds the market is assigning to a Clinton victory. We also look at what some politically sensitive industry groups may be telling us about the election outcome.

OVERSEEING POOR EARNINGS OVERSEAS

Corporate earnings, the most important factor in market performance, were poor in developed foreign markets last quarter. Forecasts for future earnings have been improving in emerging markets and Europe, but have declined dramatically for Japan. Strength out of the German DAX could be one clue that better times are ahead for Europe.

EARNINGS UPDATE: WE WERE HOPING FOR MORE

We were hoping for more out of corporate America this earnings season. Although the numbers have not been great, there have been some encouraging signs. The tech sector has produced solid results and forward estimates have been resilient.

TIME FOR AN AUGUST SWOON?

We continue to expect an improving economic backdrop in the second half and a stock market with the potential for more new highs before year-end. However, growing near-term concerns are making the odds of some type of a late summer correction more likely.

EARNINGS UPDATE: CORPORATE RESILIENCE

We expect another quarterly earnings gain in the second quarter despite the drags from oil and the U.S. dollar. Improved global growth, lower energy costs, and effective cost controls have supported overall results. Although forward estimates have edged lower, we continue to expect earnings growth to accelerate during the second half of the year.

 
Results: 20 Articles found.
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