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JULY 2015 BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward wage pressures continue to emerge. Optimism regarding the economic outlook far outweighed pessimism throughout the Beige Book, as it has for the past two years or so. Our new Beige Book Barometer for the three Fed districts with the most energy-related economic activity reveals more weakness.

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016

As companies report second quarter 2015 results, the health of the global economy will likely get plenty of attention. The U.S., China, the Eurozone, and Japan account for nearly two-thirds of global economic activity; thus, these areas are where global growth matters the most. The market continues to expect that global GDP growth will accelerate in 2015, 2016, and 2017, aided by lower oil prices and stimulus from two of the three leading central banks in the world.

THE FED AFTER THE “NO”

Our view remains that the Fed is on track to hike rates for the first time in this cycle in late 2015. The longer the uncertainty around Greece lingers, the greater the odds that the Fed doesn’t hike rates until early 2016. A decisive upturn in wage inflation remains key to moving inflation and inflation expectations higher.

PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER

We continue to expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher over the remainder of 2015. Good old American know-how continues to be in demand. Overseas, monetary policies continue to drive global growth, impacting most of the largest international economies.

BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET 6/8/15

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a pace that is at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward pressure on wages is beginning to emerge. Optimism regarding the economic outlook far outweighed pessimism throughout the Beige Book, as it has for the past two years or so.

 
Results: 26 Articles found.
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