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TAKING A PAGE FROM THE FED

The ECB is widely expected to announce a Fed-style outright government bond purchase program this week. A large and bold plan may arrest the rise in global government bond prices, but anything else may reinforce the record low-yield environment.

BEIGE BOOK - January 2015

The latest Beige Book reflected a picture of the U.S. economy that was largely unaffected by concerns over dropping oil prices, the 2014 holiday shopping season, global growth scares, and a rising U.S. dollar, although the drop in oil prices was noted as a negative in some districts.

EUROPEAN HEAD FAKE?

The much anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting this week may include a quantitative easing (QE) program announcement. Although we would view a potentially bold QE program from the ECB as an incremental positive, the ongoing growth and deflation challenges in Europe leave us still with a strong preference for the U.S.

WHAT IS DRIVING BOND YIELDS?

The fall in 10- and 30-year Treasury yields over the second half of 2014 has been driven primarily by falling inflation expectations, rather than concern over the health of the U.S. economy. The decline in European government yields, unlike U.S. Treasuries, reflects both bleak growth prospects and lower inflation expectations.

DRILLING INTO THE LABOR MARKET

The U.S. economy created another 252,000 net new jobs in December 2014 and 3 million over the course of 2014, with the most net new jobs added since 1999. The labor market still has a long way to go to get back to “normal,” which may keep the Fed on hold for raising rates until late 2015.

 
Results: 184 Articles found.
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