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Results: 153 Articles found.

PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE

The declining labor force participation rate continues to receive attention from the media and the public, although largely ignored by the markets. We continue to expect the U.S. economy could potentially create between 225,000 and 250,000 net new jobs per month in 2015. Labor force growth plus productivity growth are important indicators for long-term economic growth.

STATE OF THE STATES

Municipal supply has been a headwind for much of 2015 but appears to be tapering off ahead of a typical summer slowdown. Over the longer term, still tight state budgets may keep broader municipal supply restrained and limit growth of the overall municipal bond market, which could become a tailwind. Despite the constant flow of negative headlines, primarily from Puerto Rico, the overall credit quality of the municipal market appears to be on solid footing.

CLASSIC DRIVERS OF BOND YIELDS PUSH HIGHER

Better economic growth and higher inflation expectations are driving confidence in the trajectory of the global economy. Lower yields and lingering price pressures still point to a very low-return environment for high-quality bonds in 2015. The combination of corporate and Treasury supply may keep headwinds on bond investors.

DEBUNKING DOW THEORY

We do not believe transports’ weakness is a signal of an impending economic and market downturn. Historical data suggest transports’ underperformance may actually be signaling a buying opportunity for the S&P 500 rather than a sell. We believe transports present an attractive investment opportunity for the second half of 2015.

HAMMER FLAT: MIDYEAR BOND MARKET OUTLOOK

We continue to expect roughly flat bond returns for 2015, as the choppy market environment witnessed over the first half of 2015 continues. The challenging, low-return environment confronting bond investors is likely to persist.

 
Results: 153 Articles found.
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