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MBS UPDATE

MBS may offer additional value versus Treasuries in a range-bound or rising rate environment. MBS valuations are broadly in-line with their post-recession average, and yield per unit of duration (interest rate risk) remains attractive relative to other high-quality sectors.

LISTEN TO THE LEADERS

The LEI provides a valuable monthly guidepost regarding where we are in the economic expansion. The LEI has to turn negative on a year-overyear basis to indicate a recession, which it has not yet done. Despite the weak reading in August 2016, we do not think the LEI is signaling a recession in the near term, although global and policy risks remain.

FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS

Our Five Forecasters are collectively sending mostly mid-cycle signals. The Leading Economic Index, yield curve, and market breadth are all signaling the continuation of the economic expansion and bull market. Stock market valuations and the ISM Manufacturing Index are flashing some warning signs that are worth watching.

MUNICIPAL SUPPLY SURGE

The municipal bond market is dealing with a surge of supply of epic proportions, both from new issuance and existing supply in the secondary market. Historically, supply surges have often led to imbalances that resulted in price declines, but municipal bond prices have only showed minor cracks so far.​

EM EARNINGS: BEGINNING TO EMERGE

Earnings growth across emerging market (EM) equities has been positive in contrast to the decline in earnings and earnings expectations in developed international markets.

 
Results: 246 Articles found.
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