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Results: 90 Articles found.

Blasé on the Budget

The nation’s fiscal situation has improved dramatically in the past five years due to overall economic improvement and a combination of higher tax rates and modest spending increases. However, structural and demographic problems that will drive the deficit over the next several decades remain in place. If policymakers continue to ignore critical warning signs, the near-term improvement in the budget picture is unlikely to last.

Grading on a Curve (the Yield Curve, That Is)

The yield curve has a perfect record in signaling recessions over the past 50 years. One of our “Five Forecasters,” the yield curve tells us that a recession and significant market downturn are likely a ways off.

Housing Hiatus?

We continue to expect housing may add to GDP growth in 2014 and for the next several years as the market normalizes following the severe housing bust of 2005 – 2010. Housing affordability and supply, and the supply and demand for home mortgages, will likely determine the pace at which housing increases GDP growth in the years ahead. The inventory of new and existing homes for sale as a percentage of total households has never been lower.

The State of States

A change of seasons should be noted by municipal investors, as a seasonal increase in new issuance may be a catalyst to lower returns after a strong 2014. It is not uncommon for revenues to slow as the economy matures, and we do not view the slowdown in state tax revenues as worrisome for municipal bond investors.

Don’t Fight the ECB? (Part 2 of 2)

Last week we discussed why buying European stocks now, following the recent stimulus announced by the ECB, is very different from buying U.S. stocks during periods of Fed stimulus in recent years. This week we take a deeper dive into the investment opportunity in Europe and evaluate fundamentals, valuations, and technicals. We recommend that investors “fight the ECB.” We do not believe the additional stimulus is enough for us to recommend European equities over U.S. equities at this time.

 
Results: 90 Articles found.
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