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Results: 185 Articles found.

HOW EXTREME IT IS

The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 0.6% over the past six weeks, a very rare occurrence.

DATA-DRIVEN PERSPECTIVE ON A ROUGH START TO 2016

It has been a rough start to 2016 for the stock market. In fact, it’s been one of the worst starts to a year in the history of the S&P 500.

WHAT A NON-RECESSIONARY BEAR MIGHT LOOK LIKE

Bear markets can occur without recessions. There have been ten bear markets in the S&P 500 since 1968, and four of them occurred without an accompanying recession.

WHAT DO CLAIMS CLAIM?

We have raised the odds of recession to 30% today, from around 10 – 15% at the start of the year.

GROUNDHOG DAY?

Our view is that while the odds of a U.S. recession in 2016 remain low, they have increased since the start of the year. Some investors fear that the remainder of the year will be a repeat of January 2016, 2008, or 1998, which we think is unlikely.

 
Results: 185 Articles found.
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