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Results: 225 Articles found.

HIGH-YIELD OIL SLICK

The year-to-date performance advantage of high-yield bonds relative to Treasuries (based on the Barclays High Yield and Treasury indexes) has been reduced to a very narrow margin following rising oil-related default fears. We find current market-default expectations, which imply a 15% default rate over one year, overly pessimistic. Few bond maturities come due through the end of 2016, a key factor that will likely support a low-default environment for high-yield bonds overall.

GLOBAL GDP TRACKER: SUMMER 2015 EDITION

Q2 GDP results to date suggest global growth in 2015 is accelerating versus 2014, despite some high-profile GDP misses and China concerns. The Eurozone appears to have some economic momentum after nearly a half-decade of sluggish growth, with Q2 GDP acceleration expected.

WHAT WE CAN LEARN BY GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

Expectations for the back to school shopping season are low, and this season may only be flat versus last year. Several consumer spending tailwinds suggest the consumer discretionary sector may be poised to outperform through year-end.

SUMMER GROWTH CONCERNS

Fixed income markets showed signs of a growth scare in July 2015, with lower real yields, lower inflation expectations, and a flatter yield curve. The markets’ reaction may be a signal to the Fed that September 2015 is too early for an interest rate increase. Recent growth concerns may be creating opportunities.​

PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE

The declining labor force participation rate continues to receive attention from the media and the public, although largely ignored by the markets. We continue to expect the U.S. economy could potentially create between 225,000 and 250,000 net new jobs per month in 2015. Labor force growth plus productivity growth are important indicators for long-term economic growth.

 
Results: 225 Articles found.
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