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JULY 2015 BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward wage pressures continue to emerge. Optimism regarding the economic outlook far outweighed pessimism throughout the Beige Book, as it has for the past two years or so. Our new Beige Book Barometer for the three Fed districts with the most energy-related economic activity reveals more weakness.

OIL’S LONG BOTTOMING PROCESS

The additional supply expected from Iran and the slow response by producers to reduce supply may lengthen oil’s stay in the $5 0– 60 range. We have tempered our previous enthusiasm for the energy sector and at current oil price levels view it as a market performer.

Q2 EARNINGS PREVIEW

Q2 earnings season may look a lot like Q1 as companies once again face the twin drags of the energy downturn and strong U.S. dollar. Corporate America may impress in other ways, such as its resilience to the latest Greece and China flare-ups. As earning season progresses, we will watch for evidence that earnings will accelerate in the second half.

THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE

Due to still expensive valuations and low yields, we believe the current low-return environment could potentially persist for high-quality bonds for several years. Rising interest rate risk and still declining income generation pose an additional challenge.

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016

As companies report second quarter 2015 results, the health of the global economy will likely get plenty of attention. The U.S., China, the Eurozone, and Japan account for nearly two-thirds of global economic activity; thus, these areas are where global growth matters the most. The market continues to expect that global GDP growth will accelerate in 2015, 2016, and 2017, aided by lower oil prices and stimulus from two of the three leading central banks in the world.

 
Results: 217 Articles found.
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