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Results: 90 Articles found.

Bond Yields Around a First Rate Hike

Historically, bond yields have begun to move more forcefully four to six months ahead of a first rate hike from the Fed. We believe the rise in interest rates may begin sooner this cycle due to lower yields and more expensive valuations. We favor capitalizing on year-to-date bond strength and recommend a defensive posture consisting of short to intermediate bonds.

Ready, Set, HIKE!

The first rate hike by the Fed has never been an indication of a market peak. On average, the first rate hike has taken place 37% into the economic cycle (measured peak to peak). The S&P 500 has returned on average, another 58% after the first rate hike (price return) before the market peak for the economic cycle. The initial market reaction to a rate hike is, on average, negative, but the data show it pays to be invested.

Geopolitics & Bonds

Geopolitical risks powered bonds to another weekly gain, but historically such gains have been short-lived and given way to other fundamental drivers. Low volume summer trading may keep bond yields pinned near year-to-date lows over the near term.

Crystal Ball?

We believe the LEI is one of the better indicators to foreshadow recession. The latest information from the LEI suggests a positive backdrop for stocks and low risk of recession.

Exporting Good Old American Know-How Part 2

Our fastest growing exports are not always as visible as some of the items we consume and import daily. Most major service export categories have experienced near 10% growth per year for the past 10 years. Good Old American Know-How is our most abundant resource.

 
Results: 90 Articles found.
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