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BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO

The high-yield energy sector has kept pace with the broader high-yield bond market in 2015 even as oil prices weakened, a notable difference from 2014. Although we don’t believe the high-yield bond market will return to the June 2014 peak, the current yield spread may still represent good value given still strong corporate fundamentals and low defaults.

THE DOLLAR’S RIPPLE EFFECT

Using intermarket analysis is important to reduce the risk of missing vital directional clues within the financial markets. Recently, a strong U.S. dollar has created headwinds for the euro, crude oil, and commodity-sensitive emerging markets.

FORECAST FOR CLEAR SKIES: LEI SHOWS LOW ODDS OF RECESSION

The outcome of last week’s FOMC meeting confirmed our long-held view that the Fed would keep rates “lower for longer.” A report that may have been overlooked by financial market participants last week is the LEI, which is designed to predict the future path of the economy. The LEI suggests the risk of recession in the next 12 months is negligible (4%), but not zero.

PATIENTLY WAITING

The Fed faces a number of obstacles now and may require greater justification to suggest raising interest rates as soon as June. Bond market reaction to recent Fed meetings has been initially bearish but muted overall. Maintaining the word “patient” could have different implications for segments of the bond market.

FOMC PREVIEW: WHEN, HOW OFTEN, AND HOW MUCH

What the FOMC says, if anything, about the rising dollar and its implications, could have ramifications for monetary policy over the next several quarters and beyond. In addition to “when,” market participants may start asking “how much” and “how fast” rates may increase once the Fed begins to raise the rates. We are watching several factors to gauge when the Fed may begin to hike rates, including wages, the output gap, inflation, and inflation expectations.

 
Results: 153 Articles found.
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