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MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2016: BELIEVING IN THE POTENTIAL OF THE U.S. ECONOMY

Looking out into the second half of the year, we expect the U.S. economy may grow between 2.0% and 2.5%. Given both the direct and indirect impacts of Brexit on the U.S. economy and financial system, we are now expecting the Fed to raise rates just once this year.

MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2016: CAMPAIGNING FOR MORE INVESTMENT

We expect mid-single- digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2016, consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance, driven by a second half earnings rebound. Key risks include a policy mistake from Washington or the Fed, geopolitics, and a surprising pickup in inflation. Bouts of volatility are likely

Q2 2016 EARNINGS PREVIEW: BETTER TIMES AHEAD?

The earnings recession will likely continue with second quarter results, which will begin to be reported this week. Better times may lie ahead: U.S. economic growth has started to pick up, the drags from the U.S. dollar and oil are starting to abate, and Brexit appears unlikely to hurt U.S. companies much.

WHAT’S AHEAD FOR THE U.K. & EUROPE?

Following its vote to the leave, the U.K. will need to enter negotiations with the EU regarding the terms of the exit. The terms regarding movement of people across borders and the trade relationship will be the focus of the negotiations. In addition to political uncertainty in the U.K., there are several other political events across Europe in 2016–2017 that we’ll be watching.

BREXIT & BONDS

High-quality bond strength is unlikely to fade soon, if history is a guide. A greater likelihood of central banks remaining marketfriendly for longer would provide fundamental support for high-quality bonds and the lower for longer theme.

BREXIT REFLECTIONS

The Brexit’s impacts on earnings and U.S. stocks may be limited; we maintain our 2016 year-end S&P 500 forecast for mid-singledigit returns.* However, uncertainty in Europe, seasonal weakness, and the U.S. presidential election

BREXIT BREAKDOWN

The surprising outcome of the Brexit vote has led to uncertainty for markets and global economies. How long this uncertainty persists will likely determine the extent of any negative impact to the U.S. economy.

MUNICIPALS BUCK THE SEASONAL TREND

Municipal bonds have dodged a seasonally weak June period, with notable gains so far in June 2016. A strong first half of June has pushed yields on 10- and 30-year municipal bonds to all-time lows, which should temper investor expectations for seasonal strength over July and August

OVERCOMING A WALL OF WORRIES

We look at three reasons to be fearful of future economic and stock market returns, and three reasons why the fears may be overblown. In the face of some recent bad news and growing investor worries, the S&P 500 is still only 2.8% away from a new all-time high.

TRADING PLACES: THE BREXIT, THE U.K., AND THE EU

Thursday’s “Brexit” vote, during which the U.K. will vote to stay or leave the EU, has had considerable impact on the markets recently. The pattern from similar recent votes suggests that the chances of the U.K. staying are greater than the polls suggest.

BOND MARKET MESSAGES

The market is only pricing in a 23% chance of a rate hike by July, though Fed messaging continues to point toward a summer hike. The yield curve continues to indicate that the bond market is not yet comfortable with more rate hikes.

BREXIT: SHOULD THEY STAY OR SHOULD THEY GO?

The United Kingdom votes on June 23 on whether to remain or exit the European Union (Brexit). Financial markets had been confident the U.K. would remain, though very recent polling data have created uncertainty.​

FOMC FAQs: ALL ABOUT THE DOT PLOTS

The Fed holds its fourth of eight FOMC meetings of 2016 this Tuesday and Wednesday, June 14 – 15, 2016. With a rate hike unlikely, the FOMC’s “dot plots” will likely be at the center of attention.

ECB CORPORATE PURCHASE PROGRAM

The ECB’s corporate bond purchase program will officially kick off this week, but potential impacts have largely been priced in

A LOOK AT THE GAAP GAP

This week we take a look at the “GAAP gap,” the gap between reported and operating earnings. The gap today is largely energy driven, and we see little in earnings data that might indicate a broader market downturn.

6/6/16 BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing near its long-term trend. Oil production continues to weigh on economic conditions in the energy-producing states.

GDP GAP

The gap between GDP growth in the first and second quarters has widened over the past 20 years, particularly over the last 10. We believe the Fed is on track for two rate hikes this year, and GDP growth of 3% in the second half of 2016 may result in a third rate hike.

HIGH-YIELD BONDS STILL DEPENDENT ON OIL

High-yield bond strength has continued largely due to additional oil price gains. We find high-yield bonds fairly valued and see further gains as limited.

JAM-PACKED JUNE

June is jam-packed with major market events that may go a long way toward determining the direction of the

THE GREAT BOND SELL-OFF OF 2015: REPEATING IN 2016?

Improving economic growth and rising Fed rate hike risks make the current bond market environment similar to 2015.

SPINNING OUR WHEELS

The S&P 500 celebrated the one-year anniversary of its all-time high on May 21, 2016. One-year periods without new highs during bull markets have often preceded strong stock market gains.

CAN CHINA’S CRACKS BE REPAIRED?

China’s recovery from the global economic crisis of 2008 was built on significant and unsustainable debt levels. Total Chinese debt is believed to be $30 trillion, with consensus building that something must be done.

TIME TO BUY MORTGAGES?

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may provide opportunity in a challenging bond market environment.

CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: SENTIMENT MIXED

Our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for the first quarter earnings period provides a mixed picture.

BUILDING BLOCKS

Job growth may be slowing, but when put in a broader context, it may also be at the height of its new potential.

BONDS IN AN ELECTION YEAR

Much work has been done on potential election year impacts for the stock market, but little on interest rates and the bond market.

YET ANOTHER DISCONNECT

In our view, the April 2016 employment report underscores a key disconnect between the market and Federal Reserve (Fed).

WHAT MIGHT TRUMP THE ELECTION YEAR PATTERN?

This week we look at what the upcoming presidential election may mean for markets in 2016.

HIGH-YIELD: STILL ALL ABOUT OIL

Oil and high-yield bond prices remain tightly linked. A close relationship between the two has persisted since summer 2014, when...

CONSUMER CHECK-IN

The 75% run-up in oil prices from the multiyear lows hit in mid-February 2016 has raised concerns that the U.S consumer may run for the hills.

IS SELL IN MAY JUST A CLICHÉ?

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited cliché in stock market history.

THE NEGATIVE RATES EXPERIMENT

Negative interest rates are likely to persist as two central banks reiterated their commitment and a third, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), could do the same this week.

FOMC FAQs: WHEN DOVES CRY?

As the third of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) again remain deeply divided over the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes.

VALUE COMEBACK?

Value stocks have staged a comeback versus growth after a long losing streak.

MIXED MESSAGES FROM MUNICIPALS

Low yields coupled with fair valuations send a mixed message from the municipal bond market.

TAKING STOCK AFTER THE RALLY

Stocks have had quite a nice run. Since the February 11, 2016 lows the S&P 500 has gained 14%. The rally...​

FOLLOWING THE MONEY IN EM CURRENCY MARKETS

Emerging markets (EM) tantalize investors with the prospects of higher returns; yet the key to these returns may be the value of the U.S. dollar.

STATE OF THE STATES

With the deadline approaching, taxes are front and center in the minds of investors.

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2016 & 2017

As U.S. corporations begin to report their results for the recently completed first quarter of 2016, global growth will likely take center stage among investors.

EMERGING MARKET EARNINGS: IS THE TIDE TURNING?

After disappointing investors last year, emerging market earnings forecasts may finally be consistent with what can be delivered.

A TALE OF TWO HALVES

The first quarter of 2016 is in the record books and for most, including bond investors, it was a tale of two halves.

CHECKING IN ON TRADE

The U.S. has run a trade deficit (importing more goods and services from other countries than it exports) since the mid-1970s, which acts as a drag on overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Q1 2016 EARNINGS PREVIEW: NO MORE EXCUSES

First quarter earnings results will not be very exciting, but the earnings trajectory may be at a trough.​

EARNINGS UPDATE: CORPORATE RESILIENCE

We expect another quarterly earnings gain in the second quarter despite the drags from oil and the U.S. dollar. Improved global growth, lower energy costs, and effective cost controls have supported overall results. Although forward estimates have edged lower, we continue to expect earnings growth to accelerate during the second half of the year.

Be Prepared: Tips for Caring for an Ill or Elderly Parent

Illness or disability can come without warning. If you are faced with taking on the responsibility of caring for an aging parent or ailing loved one, these checklists may serve as a starting point for organizing your thoughts and building the network of financial, medical and other resources that can help.

Doing Good When Doing Well: Philanthropy and the Affluent Family

In order to choose the most advantageous charitable giving strategy, individuals and families must evaluate a number of factors, such as their need for current income, their desire to control and preserve assets during life and after death, their specific charitable intent, as well as important tax management issues.

BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODEST ECONOMIC GROWTH

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a “modest or moderate” pace that is at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward pressure on wages is beginning to emerge. Optimism on Main Street remains high despite the recent barrage of bad news on the economy.

How Much Do You Need to Retire?

Americans used to count on a pension plus Social Security to get them through their “golden years.” But times have changed. Today defined benefit pension plans are becoming much less common, people change jobs more often and most manage their own retirement funds through defined contribution plans.

Reduce Debt, the Systematic Way

In America today, carrying some debt is unavoidable but how much debt is tool much? Assess your debt and begin reducing it with three easy steps .

Inflation Happens: Don’t Let It Derail Your Long-Term Plans

A penny saved is a penny earned, right? Not necessarily. Thanks to inflation, over time that penny could be worth less than when it was first dropped into the piggy bank. That’s why if you're investing—especially for major goals years away, such as retirement—you can’t afford to ignore the corrosive effect rising prices can have on the value of your assets.

Federal and State College Financial Aid Programs

The cost of financing a college education can be daunting to many families. The good news is that a family does not have to be in a low-income bracket to qualify for many current aid programs.

Enhancing Charitable Gifts With Life Insurance

If you are a regular donor to charity, life insurance could help you to make a much larger gift to your cause of choice.1 Instead of making periodic cash contributions to a charity, you could use the same amount to pay the premium on a life insurance policy to benefit the charity. Upon your death, the charity would receive the full face value of your policy—which would likely amount to considerably more than you could afford to donate during your lifetime.

Managing Health Care Costs: Tips for Small Businesses

Employer-sponsored health insurance is considered by business owners and employees alike to be one of the most important benefits available in the workplace today. Yet skyrocketing costs are making it more difficult for small businesses to attract and retain skilled workers with the promise of health insurance

Understanding Your Retirement Income Replacement Ratio

Although the term retirement income replacement ratio sounds formidable, it’s actually a simple, understandable concept that doesn’t require any fancy math. The ratio helps you zero in on your retirement savings goal and periodically measure your progress as you move toward your target. Will you need 60%, 75%, 90% or even 100% of the income you have in your last year of work to maintain a desirable standard of living after you retire?

Investing Through Life’s Stages

Read this simple guide on how to get started in investing and how to reassess your investment strategies through multiple life changes.

Kids & Money: Nurturing Your Child’s Financial Growth

Most kids learn the basics of money and making change in elementary school, but probably won’t learn how to manage money unless they choose finance as a career path. That means it is up to all of us to see that our children reach adulthood prepared to face life’s fiscal challenges.

Keeping Up With Your IRA: Tax Season Tips

If you’re one of the millions of Americans who owns either a traditional individual retirement account (IRA) or a Roth IRA, then the approach of tax season should serve as a reminder to review your retirement savings strategies and make any changes that will enhance your prospects for long-term financial security. It’s also a good time to open an IRA if you don’t already have one.

Maintain a Good Credit Rating

For better or for worse, the American way of financial life relies on debt as a way of solidifying a desired lifestyle. Therefore, it is important to establish a good credit history if you intend on making more substantial, debt-financed purchases in the future.

 
Results: 58 Articles found.
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