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MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2016: CAMPAIGNING FOR MORE INVESTMENT

We expect mid-single- digit returns for the S&P 500 in 2016, consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance, driven by a second half earnings rebound. Key risks include a policy mistake from Washington or the Fed, geopolitics, and a surprising pickup in inflation. Bouts of volatility are likely

Q2 2016 EARNINGS PREVIEW: BETTER TIMES AHEAD?

The earnings recession will likely continue with second quarter results, which will begin to be reported this week. Better times may lie ahead: U.S. economic growth has started to pick up, the drags from the U.S. dollar and oil are starting to abate, and Brexit appears unlikely to hurt U.S. companies much.

WHAT’S AHEAD FOR THE U.K. & EUROPE?

Following its vote to the leave, the U.K. will need to enter negotiations with the EU regarding the terms of the exit. The terms regarding movement of people across borders and the trade relationship will be the focus of the negotiations. In addition to political uncertainty in the U.K., there are several other political events across Europe in 2016–2017 that we’ll be watching.

BREXIT & BONDS

High-quality bond strength is unlikely to fade soon, if history is a guide. A greater likelihood of central banks remaining marketfriendly for longer would provide fundamental support for high-quality bonds and the lower for longer theme.

BREXIT REFLECTIONS

The Brexit’s impacts on earnings and U.S. stocks may be limited; we maintain our 2016 year-end S&P 500 forecast for mid-singledigit returns.* However, uncertainty in Europe, seasonal weakness, and the U.S. presidential election

 
Results: 57 Articles found.
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