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REASSESSING INTEREST RATE RISK

We do not expect the weakness witnessed in 2013, but a difficult February 2015 thus far warrants another look at assessing interest rate risk, especially given the likely start of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes later this year. Sector allocation, maturity exposure, time horizon, and whether interest income is reinvested or simply spent, all influence potential total returns during a potential bear market for bonds.

HOUSING HEALTH

We continue to expect housing may add to GDP growth in 2015 and for the next several years, as the market normalizes following the severe housing bust of 2005 – 2010. Poor weather in Q1 2015 may again cause housing to be a drag on growth early in 2015.

ARE EXPECTATIONS TOO HIGH?

The market’s continued ascent has caused some to ask if the stock market reflects excessive optimism. The pace of economic surprises as measured by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index suggests expectations remain reasonable.

PUERTO RICO PUTTERS

Puerto Rico municipal bond price volatility picked up following the strike down of the restructuring law, as the market began to price in the prospect of a broader default. The impact on the broader municipal market is still limited, as has been the case for much of the past 18 months. Default risk for Puerto Rico remains but we still find the broader municipal bond market attractive.

ENERGY SECTOR OUTLOOK:WHAT WE ARE WATCHING

We are watching several key factors to assess the potential opportunity in the energy sector. While we expect to try to take advantage of opportunities in this group in short order, we are not convinced that it now presents a great entry point. We continue to recommend the consumer discretionary sector, where suitable, as a way to play low energy prices.

 
Results: 200 Articles found.
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