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CLASSIC DRIVERS OF BOND YIELDS PUSH HIGHER

Better economic growth and higher inflation expectations are driving confidence in the trajectory of the global economy. Lower yields and lingering price pressures still point to a very low-return environment for high-quality bonds in 2015. The combination of corporate and Treasury supply may keep headwinds on bond investors.

HAMMER FLAT: MIDYEAR BOND MARKET OUTLOOK

We continue to expect roughly flat bond returns for 2015, as the choppy market environment witnessed over the first half of 2015 continues. The challenging, low-return environment confronting bond investors is likely to persist.

PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER

We continue to expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher over the remainder of 2015. Good old American know-how continues to be in demand. Overseas, monetary policies continue to drive global growth, impacting most of the largest international economies.

BATTERIES NOT INCLUDED: MIDYEAR STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

We believe corporate America will provide a much needed boost for the second half — providing the seventh year of positive returns in 2015, in the 5 – 9% range we forecast. Our forecast is based on expected mid-single-digit EPS growth for S&P 500 companies, supported by improved global economic growth, stable profit margins, and share buybacks in 2015, with limited help from valuation expansion.

BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET 6/8/15

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a pace that is at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward pressure on wages is beginning to emerge. Optimism regarding the economic outlook far outweighed pessimism throughout the Beige Book, as it has for the past two years or so.

 
Results: 58 Articles found.
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