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Ready, Set, HIKE!

The first rate hike by the Fed has never been an indication of a market peak. On average, the first rate hike has taken place 37% into the economic cycle (measured peak to peak). The S&P 500 has returned on average, another 58% after the first rate hike (price return) before the market peak for the economic cycle. The initial market reaction to a rate hike is, on average, negative, but the data show it pays to be invested.

Data Dilemma: When Final Isn’t Final

Revisions to GDP don’t often change the overall picture of the health, or lack thereof, of the economy. Despite cutbacks to congressional funding of data collection at the federal level in recent years, the GDP data are a lot more accurate than they used to be. About every five years, the BEA does a “comprehensive revision” to GDP, and at that point, GDP for any specific quarter is just about as final as it will get, as the BEA has 98% of the data it needs to calculate GDP.

Current Conditions Index 8/20/14

Read real-time insight into the trends that shape LPL Financial Research’s recommended actions to manage portfolios, it has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool.

Geopolitics & Bonds

Geopolitical risks powered bonds to another weekly gain, but historically such gains have been short-lived and given way to other fundamental drivers. Low volume summer trading may keep bond yields pinned near year-to-date lows over the near term.

Crystal Ball?

We believe the LEI is one of the better indicators to foreshadow recession. The latest information from the LEI suggests a positive backdrop for stocks and low risk of recession.

 
Results: 207 Articles found.
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