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Results: 61 Articles found.

TIME TO BUY MORTGAGES?

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may provide opportunity in a challenging bond market environment.

CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: SENTIMENT MIXED

Our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for the first quarter earnings period provides a mixed picture.

BUILDING BLOCKS

Job growth may be slowing, but when put in a broader context, it may also be at the height of its new potential.

BONDS IN AN ELECTION YEAR

Much work has been done on potential election year impacts for the stock market, but little on interest rates and the bond market.

YET ANOTHER DISCONNECT

In our view, the April 2016 employment report underscores a key disconnect between the market and Federal Reserve (Fed).

WHAT MIGHT TRUMP THE ELECTION YEAR PATTERN?

This week we look at what the upcoming presidential election may mean for markets in 2016.

HIGH-YIELD: STILL ALL ABOUT OIL

Oil and high-yield bond prices remain tightly linked. A close relationship between the two has persisted since summer 2014, when...

CONSUMER CHECK-IN

The 75% run-up in oil prices from the multiyear lows hit in mid-February 2016 has raised concerns that the U.S consumer may run for the hills.

IS SELL IN MAY JUST A CLICHÉ?

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited cliché in stock market history.

THE NEGATIVE RATES EXPERIMENT

Negative interest rates are likely to persist as two central banks reiterated their commitment and a third, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), could do the same this week.

FOMC FAQs: WHEN DOVES CRY?

As the third of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) again remain deeply divided over the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes.

VALUE COMEBACK?

Value stocks have staged a comeback versus growth after a long losing streak.

MIXED MESSAGES FROM MUNICIPALS

Low yields coupled with fair valuations send a mixed message from the municipal bond market.

TAKING STOCK AFTER THE RALLY

Stocks have had quite a nice run. Since the February 11, 2016 lows the S&P 500 has gained 14%. The rally...​

FOLLOWING THE MONEY IN EM CURRENCY MARKETS

Emerging markets (EM) tantalize investors with the prospects of higher returns; yet the key to these returns may be the value of the U.S. dollar.

STATE OF THE STATES

With the deadline approaching, taxes are front and center in the minds of investors.

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2016 & 2017

As U.S. corporations begin to report their results for the recently completed first quarter of 2016, global growth will likely take center stage among investors.

EMERGING MARKET EARNINGS: IS THE TIDE TURNING?

After disappointing investors last year, emerging market earnings forecasts may finally be consistent with what can be delivered.

A TALE OF TWO HALVES

The first quarter of 2016 is in the record books and for most, including bond investors, it was a tale of two halves.

CHECKING IN ON TRADE

The U.S. has run a trade deficit (importing more goods and services from other countries than it exports) since the mid-1970s, which acts as a drag on overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Q1 2016 EARNINGS PREVIEW: NO MORE EXCUSES

First quarter earnings results will not be very exciting, but the earnings trajectory may be at a trough.​

RISING BOND DEALER HOLDINGS

The recent rise in bond dealer Treasury holdings has spawned concerns about the U.S. bond market, ranging from foreign selling to the potential fragility of the bond market.

MARCH 2016 EMPLOYMENT REPORT PREVIEW

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor will release its always widely anticipated Employment Situation report for March 2016 on Friday, April 1, 2016.

MARKET’S MARCH MADNESS

The NCAA Men’s College Basketball Final Four is set. In that spirit, we share our own Final Four for the stock market this year: China, earnings, the Federal Reserve (Fed), and oil.

TIPS TAILWIND

High-quality bonds broadly have enjoyed a good start to 2016, but Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have particularly benefited recently and, last week, received an added tailwind from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

THE FED’S SPRING SURPRISE

As 2016 began and 2015 ended, global financial markets faced plenty of uncertainty in the wake of the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in nearly nine years.

EUROPE — NOT ENOUGH GROWTH

Forecasts for European corporate earnings have become increasingly pessimistic.

THE FED: FRIEND OR FOE?

The real question investors will grapple with at the conclusion of this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting is whether the Fed is pro-growth (a friend) or a potential threat (foe) to financial markets.​

FOMC FAQs: ALL ABOUT THE DOTS

As the second of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain deeply divided over the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes.

WILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL?

The bull market turns seven. During that seven-year period, the S&P 500 nearly tripled, gaining 194% in price and producing a total return of 241%.

BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing near its longterm trend, but that the drag from a stronger dollar and weaker..

WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?

We see enough factors supporting gold to justify a modest allocation in suitable portfolios.

AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

International factors can help explain the relative resilience of longerterm bonds from mid-February to the start of March.

OIL, OIL, EVERYWHERE BUT NOT A DROP TO BUY?

Despite the modest size of the energy sector (typically less than 10% of total market capitalization), crude oil and the broader stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, have had very high correlation during the past few months.

TOO SOON FOR MARCH MADNESS?

While the next FOMC meeting isn’t until mid-March, markets are already trying to decipher how the gap between the Fed’s forecast of the fed funds rate and the market’s expectations will be resolved.

MUNICIPAL CHECK-IN

Municipal bonds have failed to keep pace with Treasury strength so far in 2016, but performance has been robust.

FROM HEADWIND TO TAILWIND?

Since the middle of 2014 — as markets prepared for the start of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and more easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) — the U.S. dollar has been on a near historic run higher versus the currencies of major U.S. trading partners.

CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: MODEST DETERIORATION IN SENTIMENT

Our Corporate Beige Book highlights modest deterioration in corporate sentiment.

POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND THE BREXIT TWO SIDES OF THE SAME COIN

Heads or tails, politics or economics? Politics and economics are separate, but related disciplines, like two sides of the same coin.

HOW EXTREME IT IS

The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 0.6% over the past six weeks, a very rare occurrence.

DATA-DRIVEN PERSPECTIVE ON A ROUGH START TO 2016

It has been a rough start to 2016 for the stock market. In fact, it’s been one of the worst starts to a year in the history of the S&P 500.

WHAT A NON-RECESSIONARY BEAR MIGHT LOOK LIKE

Bear markets can occur without recessions. There have been ten bear markets in the S&P 500 since 1968, and four of them occurred without an accompanying recession.

WHAT DO CLAIMS CLAIM?

We have raised the odds of recession to 30% today, from around 10 – 15% at the start of the year.

GROUNDHOG DAY?

Our view is that while the odds of a U.S. recession in 2016 remain low, they have increased since the start of the year. Some investors fear that the remainder of the year will be a repeat of January 2016, 2008, or 1998, which we think is unlikely.

FEAR FEBRUARY AFTER JITTERY JANUARY?

Don’t worry about the January Barometer, which says, “As goes January, so goes the year.”

EARNINGS UPDATE: CORPORATE RESILIENCE

We expect another quarterly earnings gain in the second quarter despite the drags from oil and the U.S. dollar. Improved global growth, lower energy costs, and effective cost controls have supported overall results. Although forward estimates have edged lower, we continue to expect earnings growth to accelerate during the second half of the year.

Be Prepared: Tips for Caring for an Ill or Elderly Parent

Illness or disability can come without warning. If you are faced with taking on the responsibility of caring for an aging parent or ailing loved one, these checklists may serve as a starting point for organizing your thoughts and building the network of financial, medical and other resources that can help.

Doing Good When Doing Well: Philanthropy and the Affluent Family

In order to choose the most advantageous charitable giving strategy, individuals and families must evaluate a number of factors, such as their need for current income, their desire to control and preserve assets during life and after death, their specific charitable intent, as well as important tax management issues.

BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODEST ECONOMIC GROWTH

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a “modest or moderate” pace that is at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward pressure on wages is beginning to emerge. Optimism on Main Street remains high despite the recent barrage of bad news on the economy.

How Much Do You Need to Retire?

Americans used to count on a pension plus Social Security to get them through their “golden years.” But times have changed. Today defined benefit pension plans are becoming much less common, people change jobs more often and most manage their own retirement funds through defined contribution plans.

Reduce Debt, the Systematic Way

In America today, carrying some debt is unavoidable but how much debt is tool much? Assess your debt and begin reducing it with three easy steps .

Inflation Happens: Don’t Let It Derail Your Long-Term Plans

A penny saved is a penny earned, right? Not necessarily. Thanks to inflation, over time that penny could be worth less than when it was first dropped into the piggy bank. That’s why if you're investing—especially for major goals years away, such as retirement—you can’t afford to ignore the corrosive effect rising prices can have on the value of your assets.

Federal and State College Financial Aid Programs

The cost of financing a college education can be daunting to many families. The good news is that a family does not have to be in a low-income bracket to qualify for many current aid programs.

Data Dilemma: When Final Isn’t Final

Revisions to GDP don’t often change the overall picture of the health, or lack thereof, of the economy. Despite cutbacks to congressional funding of data collection at the federal level in recent years, the GDP data are a lot more accurate than they used to be. About every five years, the BEA does a “comprehensive revision” to GDP, and at that point, GDP for any specific quarter is just about as final as it will get, as the BEA has 98% of the data it needs to calculate GDP.

Enhancing Charitable Gifts With Life Insurance

If you are a regular donor to charity, life insurance could help you to make a much larger gift to your cause of choice.1 Instead of making periodic cash contributions to a charity, you could use the same amount to pay the premium on a life insurance policy to benefit the charity. Upon your death, the charity would receive the full face value of your policy—which would likely amount to considerably more than you could afford to donate during your lifetime.

Managing Health Care Costs: Tips for Small Businesses

Employer-sponsored health insurance is considered by business owners and employees alike to be one of the most important benefits available in the workplace today. Yet skyrocketing costs are making it more difficult for small businesses to attract and retain skilled workers with the promise of health insurance

Understanding Your Retirement Income Replacement Ratio

Although the term retirement income replacement ratio sounds formidable, it’s actually a simple, understandable concept that doesn’t require any fancy math. The ratio helps you zero in on your retirement savings goal and periodically measure your progress as you move toward your target. Will you need 60%, 75%, 90% or even 100% of the income you have in your last year of work to maintain a desirable standard of living after you retire?

Investing Through Life’s Stages

Read this simple guide on how to get started in investing and how to reassess your investment strategies through multiple life changes.

Kids & Money: Nurturing Your Child’s Financial Growth

Most kids learn the basics of money and making change in elementary school, but probably won’t learn how to manage money unless they choose finance as a career path. That means it is up to all of us to see that our children reach adulthood prepared to face life’s fiscal challenges.

Keeping Up With Your IRA: Tax Season Tips

If you’re one of the millions of Americans who owns either a traditional individual retirement account (IRA) or a Roth IRA, then the approach of tax season should serve as a reminder to review your retirement savings strategies and make any changes that will enhance your prospects for long-term financial security. It’s also a good time to open an IRA if you don’t already have one.

Maintain a Good Credit Rating

For better or for worse, the American way of financial life relies on debt as a way of solidifying a desired lifestyle. Therefore, it is important to establish a good credit history if you intend on making more substantial, debt-financed purchases in the future.

 
Results: 61 Articles found.
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