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EARNINGS RECAP: GOOD ENOUGH?

The S&P 500 is on track to post year-over-year earnings growth of about 2% in the first quarter — a solid result considering the significant drags from the oil downturn and strong U.S. dollar. Healthcare led the upside, followed by energy, technology, and financials, while industrials struggled.

WATCHING WAGES

While wage growth has been tepid recently, 67 industries have seen wages increase at double the average (21% per annum), with good old American know-how roles well represented. The April employment report suggests wage growth likely remains a concern for Fed policymakers as they debate when to begin raising rates. Our view remains that the Fed may begin to hike rates in late 2015.

EMERGING MARKETS MAY MAKE A GOOD DRAFT PICK TO ADD TO PORTFOLIOS

We believe emerging markets (EM) score well when evaluated along some of the same criteria that NFL football teams use to assess potential draft picks: speed, strength, value, upside potential, and character. According to our evaluation, EM scores very well on the first four metrics, and the fifth — character — is sufficiently discounted in terms of policy and corporate governance risks. EM may make a good draft pick to add to your portfolios.

MADE IN EUROPE

Europe bond weakness spilled over to the U.S. as investors look past week domestic data and forward to a better second half of 2015. Fading U.S. dollar strength, better growth in Europe, and the rebound in oil prices point to a reversal of the lower inflation expectations that powered bond strength for most of 2014 and early 2015.

CONSUMER CONSISTENCY

Since the peak in oil prices in June 2014, consumers saved some, spent some on nonessential items, and paid down some debt, even as measures of consumer sentiment soared. The big drop in gasoline prices has not provided a big lift to the consumer sector, which continues to struggle in this recovery, nor did it change the overall tepid trajectory of consumer spending.

 
Results: 85 Articles found.
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