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TIME FOR AN AUGUST SWOON?

We continue to expect an improving economic backdrop in the second half and a stock market with the potential for more new highs before year-end. However, growing near-term concerns are making the odds of some type of a late summer correction more likely.

HIGH-YIELD MUNICIPAL UPDATE

Broad bond market strength coupled with strong investor demand for yield has driven year-to-date strength in high-yield municipal bonds. We remain neutral on high-yield municipal bonds as more expensive valuations and greater interest rate sensitivity offsets above-average yields.

FOLLOW THE LEADERS

The LEI provides a valuable monthly guidepost regarding the state of the current economic expansion. Looking at past and present readings of the LEI provides added context for the potential direction of the U.S. economy. Despite a recent weak reading, we do not think the LEI is signaling a recession in the near term, although global and policy risks remain.

BREAKOUT

This week we look at some interesting, under-the-radar breakouts in the economy and markets. The breakout in economic surprises is a positive sign for the stock market and cyclical sectors. The breakout in valuations suggests only potential moderate gains for stocks in the near term.

MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2016: BELIEVING IN THE POTENTIAL OF THE U.S. ECONOMY

Looking out into the second half of the year, we expect the U.S. economy may grow between 2.0% and 2.5%. Given both the direct and indirect impacts of Brexit on the U.S. economy and financial system, we are now expecting the Fed to raise rates just once this year.

 
Results: 55 Articles found.
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