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WHAT WE CAN LEARN BY GOING BACK TO SCHOOL

Expectations for the back to school shopping season are low, and this season may only be flat versus last year. Several consumer spending tailwinds suggest the consumer discretionary sector may be poised to outperform through year-end.

SUMMER GROWTH CONCERNS

Fixed income markets showed signs of a growth scare in July 2015, with lower real yields, lower inflation expectations, and a flatter yield curve. The markets’ reaction may be a signal to the Fed that September 2015 is too early for an interest rate increase. Recent growth concerns may be creating opportunities.​

EARNINGS UPDATE: CORPORATE RESILIENCE

We expect another quarterly earnings gain in the second quarter despite the drags from oil and the U.S. dollar. Improved global growth, lower energy costs, and effective cost controls have supported overall results. Although forward estimates have edged lower, we continue to expect earnings growth to accelerate during the second half of the year.

TANGLED UP IN EU

Although some European countries have made progress with structural reforms, much more work is needed. The lack of progress on many structural reforms in countries outside of Germany continues to weigh on the Eurozone’s global competiveness. The verdict is still out on Greece and its promised structural reforms.

CHINA’S EFFECT ON EMERGING MARKETS DEBT

Emerging markets debt (EMD) spreads have moved above 4%, a level that has attracted buying interest in recent years. EMD is more sensitive to interest rates than the broad U.S. fixed income market. We continue to favor high-yield bonds due to their lower interest rate sensitivity.

 
Results: 56 Articles found.
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