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Mixed Messages

The market-friendly overtures from the Fed may help keep bond yields in the current low range, but much of the good news from the Fed is already priced into the bond market. Investors may be more willing to downplay Fed news and refocus on economic data, which will ultimately drive the Fed’s decisions. Breaking out of the yield range now will likely depend on improving economic data over the next several weeks.

The Weakest Earnings Cycle in 55 Years

This has been the weakest earnings cycle in 55 years. Earnings growth needs to improve to support valuations and drive the stock market higher. Fortunately, growth may be set to improve in the coming quarters.​

Gauging Global Growth in 2014 & 2015

The stabilization in growth forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 is a sign that perhaps the market is more confident now that the global economy is in the middle innings of an expansion. While the forecasts for GDP growth for 2014 and 2015 have generally moved higher for developed economies over the past 18 months, growth estimates for emerging market economies have generally moved lower.

The Future According to the Bond Market

At any given time, current bond market pricing may provide a view of future economic growth, interest rates, inflation, and when the Federal Reserve (Fed) may raise interest rates, how fast, and by how much. The low level of longer-term bond yields, a flatter yield curve, and subdued inflation expectations all could signal a sluggish economic environment. Bond market indicators do not always come to fruition and taking a contrarian view from future indications may provide opportunities.

Current Conditions Index 4/9/14

The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool.

 
Results: 222 Articles found.
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