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DOLLAR STRENGTH IS A SYMPTOM, NOT A CAUSE

We do not think the strong U.S. dollar will derail the bull market. The dollar itself is not a key driver of market performance; it is a symptom.

TIPS & RISING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Market-implied inflation expectations have increased after reaching a multiyear low in mid-January 2015. Thus far in 2015, the inflation protection provided by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has provided a buffer, with TIPS outperforming Treasuries.

BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODEST ECONOMIC GROWTH

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a “modest or moderate” pace that is at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward pressure on wages is beginning to emerge. Optimism on Main Street remains high despite the recent barrage of bad news on the economy.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BULL MARKET

The current bull market celebrates its sixth birthday today (March 9, 2015). Bull markets do not die of old age, they die of excesses, and we do not see evidence of excesses emerging today. Some of our favorite leading indicators suggest the economic expansion and bull market may continue through the end of 2015.

HOT & COLD BONDS

January 2015 was the best month for high-quality bonds since December 2008. In February 2015, high-quality bonds posted their worst monthly performance since June 2013 and the taper tantrum sell-off. High-yield bonds experienced ups and downs thus far in 2015. After a muted January, high-yield bonds returned 2.4% in February, the largest single month gain since October 2013.

 
Results: 197 Articles found.
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