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FOURTH QUARTER PREVIEW: DÉJÀ-VU?

The Federal Reserve is pointing to a December rate hike in 2016, similar to last year, but yields are lower and prices are higher than this time last year. Economically sensitive sectors have historically weathered rate hikes better than their high-quality counterparts, but more expensive valuations warrant caution. Volatility in fixed income markets will likely re-emerge in the fourth quarter, as the presidential election overhang may keep markets on unstable footing.

TRADING PLACES: MOVEMENT OF GOODS…AND OPINIONS

This year’s presidential campaign marks a sea change in how our nation views foreign trade. The benefits and costs of trading relationships are complex; a rising tide does not lift all boats equally, and may not raise some boats at all. U.S. regions vary in what they export and to which countries; this may influence their view of the benefits and costs of trade.

WELCOME TO THE FOURTH QUARTER

Historically, the best quarter of the year is upon us. Although October has been strong recently, we expect the volatility that began in late September to continue.

MBS UPDATE

MBS may offer additional value versus Treasuries in a range-bound or rising rate environment. MBS valuations are broadly in-line with their post-recession average, and yield per unit of duration (interest rate risk) remains attractive relative to other high-quality sectors.

LISTEN TO THE LEADERS

The LEI provides a valuable monthly guidepost regarding where we are in the economic expansion. The LEI has to turn negative on a year-overyear basis to indicate a recession, which it has not yet done. Despite the weak reading in August 2016, we do not think the LEI is signaling a recession in the near term, although global and policy risks remain.

 
Results: 55 Articles found.
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