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PARSING PUERTO RICO

Puerto Rico’s debt crisis remains isolated and not symptomatic of the broad municipal bond market. Signs of contagion have not materialized and appear unlikely, although the probability of a default has increased. Puerto Rico bond prices largely reflect a default and are trading close to anticipated recovery values.

JULY 2015 BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward wage pressures continue to emerge. Optimism regarding the economic outlook far outweighed pessimism throughout the Beige Book, as it has for the past two years or so. Our new Beige Book Barometer for the three Fed districts with the most energy-related economic activity reveals more weakness.

OIL’S LONG BOTTOMING PROCESS

The additional supply expected from Iran and the slow response by producers to reduce supply may lengthen oil’s stay in the $5 0– 60 range. We have tempered our previous enthusiasm for the energy sector and at current oil price levels view it as a market performer.

Q2 EARNINGS PREVIEW

Q2 earnings season may look a lot like Q1 as companies once again face the twin drags of the energy downturn and strong U.S. dollar. Corporate America may impress in other ways, such as its resilience to the latest Greece and China flare-ups. As earning season progresses, we will watch for evidence that earnings will accelerate in the second half.

THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE

Due to still expensive valuations and low yields, we believe the current low-return environment could potentially persist for high-quality bonds for several years. Rising interest rate risk and still declining income generation pose an additional challenge.

 
Results: 68 Articles found.
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