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FOMC PREVIEW: WHEN, HOW OFTEN, AND HOW MUCH

What the FOMC says, if anything, about the rising dollar and its implications, could have ramifications for monetary policy over the next several quarters and beyond. In addition to “when,” market participants may start asking “how much” and “how fast” rates may increase once the Fed begins to raise the rates. We are watching several factors to gauge when the Fed may begin to hike rates, including wages, the output gap, inflation, and inflation expectations.

DOLLAR STRENGTH IS A SYMPTOM, NOT A CAUSE

We do not think the strong U.S. dollar will derail the bull market. The dollar itself is not a key driver of market performance; it is a symptom.

TIPS & RISING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Market-implied inflation expectations have increased after reaching a multiyear low in mid-January 2015. Thus far in 2015, the inflation protection provided by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has provided a buffer, with TIPS outperforming Treasuries.

BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODEST ECONOMIC GROWTH

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a “modest or moderate” pace that is at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward pressure on wages is beginning to emerge. Optimism on Main Street remains high despite the recent barrage of bad news on the economy.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BULL MARKET

The current bull market celebrates its sixth birthday today (March 9, 2015). Bull markets do not die of old age, they die of excesses, and we do not see evidence of excesses emerging today. Some of our favorite leading indicators suggest the economic expansion and bull market may continue through the end of 2015.

 
Results: 77 Articles found.
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