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Janet Yellen’s Employment Report

The market will be especially interested in the unemployment rate this month, because just a 0.1% drop to 6.5% pushes the rate to the Fed’s threshold of 6.5%. Yellen made it clear last week that the Fed was in no hurry to raise rates when the unemployment rate crosses the 6.5% threshold. In our view, the Fed is not likely to raise rates until late 2015 or even early 2016.

Current Conditions Index 2/26/14

The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool.

Weather Exhaustion

A burgeoning divergence between Treasury yields and economic data suggests the bond market is looking forward to spring and a clearer read of the economic data free of weather distortions. The bond market is also acknowledging the Fed remains on a slow course to remove accommodation that is not adequately reflected in today’s prices and yields.

The Real Reason for the Rebound

The idea of a change in Congress to a more business-friendly environment may be a welcome thought for many market participants and a behind-the-scenes reason for the rebound.

Residential Recovery Redux

Almost all of the factors supporting an ongoing recovery in housing remain in place, but the rise in rates will likely slow the pace of the recovery somewhat. Many, if not all, of the other housing indicators we watch also suggest ongoing recovery in the housing market in the quarters and years ahead.​

Results: 222 Articles found.
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