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It has been a rough start to 2016 for the stock market. In fact, it’s been one
of the worst starts to a year in the history of the S&P 500.
Bear markets can occur without recessions. There have been ten bear
markets in the S&P 500 since 1968, and four of them occurred without an
We have raised the odds
of recession to 30%
today, from around
10 – 15% at the start of
Our view is that while the
odds of a U.S. recession
in 2016 remain low, they
have increased since the
start of the year.
Some investors fear
that the remainder of
the year will be a repeat
of January 2016, 2008,
or 1998, which we think
Don’t worry about the January Barometer, which says, “As goes January,
so goes the year.”