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DATA-DRIVEN PERSPECTIVE ON A ROUGH START TO 2016

It has been a rough start to 2016 for the stock market. In fact, it’s been one of the worst starts to a year in the history of the S&P 500.

WHAT A NON-RECESSIONARY BEAR MIGHT LOOK LIKE

Bear markets can occur without recessions. There have been ten bear markets in the S&P 500 since 1968, and four of them occurred without an accompanying recession.

WHAT DO CLAIMS CLAIM?

We have raised the odds of recession to 30% today, from around 10 – 15% at the start of the year.

GROUNDHOG DAY?

Our view is that while the odds of a U.S. recession in 2016 remain low, they have increased since the start of the year. Some investors fear that the remainder of the year will be a repeat of January 2016, 2008, or 1998, which we think is unlikely.

FEAR FEBRUARY AFTER JITTERY JANUARY?

Don’t worry about the January Barometer, which says, “As goes January, so goes the year.”

 
Results: 61 Articles found.
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