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What Does GDP Say About EPS?

This week the World Bank will release its bi-annual Global Economic Prospects report, which forecasts the economic growth trends in the global economy for 2013 and beyond, and gauges the impact of these trends on developing nations. While the media may pay a great deal of attention to the fourth quarter corporate earnings reports, the markets are likely to look past the earnings reports and focus more on corporate guidance on earnings and revenue for the new year.

Consulting the Crystal Ball

It is inevitable that around this time of year, investors ponder what the year may hold in store for the markets. While we present many drivers in our Outlook 2013 that will combine to define the path of least resistance for the markets to follow in 2013, the interrelationships between economics, fiscal and monetary policy, geopolitics and corporate actions can seem complex. Investors can feel overwhelmed and seek a simple answer.

Checking for Collateral Damage

This week, we will begin to see if any collateral damage from the fiscal cliff battle was done to corporate profits in the fourth quarter as companies begin to release their fourth quarter earnings reports. When the earnings season winds down in February 2013, the fiscal cliff battle part II may emerge as we approach the limit on U.S. borrowing authority, the end of the delay to the spending sequester, and funding of the U.S. government.

Full Speed Recovery?

The current economic recovery is running at about half the speed of recent recoveries, and the speed of a “normal” recovery. Failure to address the debt ceiling may lead to a recession in early 2013, though this is not our Base Path in our Outlook 2013 publication. The current quarter may receive a boost from Superstorm Sandy, but the payroll tax increase may put a dent into consumers’ disposable income.​

Quick Start

2013 will get off to a quick start, as many market participants return from the holidays to face several key economic reports at home and overseas including: China’s Purchasing Managers' Index, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management, U.S. light vehicle sales, Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, and December's employment report.

Results: 47 Articles found.
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