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Listening to the Leaders: Leading Indicators Continue to Point to Slow Economic Growth, but no Recession

Based on the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), the odds of recession over the next 12 months are low but not zero. We expect gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.0% for the remainder of 2013, based on our Base Path scenario discussed in our Outlook 2013 publication and additional data.* We expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue its program of quantitative easing (QE).

The Rally Is Getting Old, but a New Trend May Be Emerging

The overall stock market has only seen a couple of 2 – 3% dips this year, but there have been 5 – 10% pullbacks among cyclical sectors. It may be time to begin to buy some of the laggard cyclicals, especially on any pullback in the overall market...

Clearing Up Confusion on Common Queries

In this week’s commentary we attempt to clear up some of the confusion around some of the most common questions we encounter regularly, including: 1)The Federal Reserve (Fed), its balance sheet, its role in the economy and its impact on inflation; 2) The federal budget deficit; 3) The federal debt outstanding, and the debt-to-GDP ratio; and 4) The trade deficit and a related topic, the US dollar...​

Borrowing for the Future

A recently detected error in a study by Harvard economists Reinhart & Rogoff has garnered much attention in the financial press lately. The study had initially concluded that once a country exceeded a 90% debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, the pace of economic growth slowed sharply. The corrected data reveal that growth slows as debt-to-GDP rises, but at a pace not meaningfully different than at other round numbers...

The ABCs of GDP

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s just released first estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1-13 which shows continued declines in federal spending, including defense spending and state and local spending. There were few, if any signs, in the GDP report for the first quarter of 2013 that the U.S. economy will re-accelerate anytime soon. We continue to expect GDP growth to average around 2.0% over the course of 2013. We examine the various components and drivers of GDP in this...

Results: 80 Articles found.
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