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Results: 11 Articles found.

Don’t Fight the ECB? (Part 1 of 2)

Buying stocks after the various QE programs were announced by the Federal Reserve was generally a profitable decision for investors. To answer the question about whether the ECB programs will have the same impact on European stock markets, we point out some key differences between the United States then and Europe now.

Is the Party Over?

At any given time, there are always some bubbly valuations among industries and stocks that are hot. But overall, looking at valuations, the party in the stock market may not be just getting started — but it is not yet close to being over.

Labor Market Report Card

Weather will still be a factor in the March employment data & the markets may give the economy another “free pass” for yet another potentially weak jobs report. In our view, the Fed would have to see a sharp slowdown (less than 50,000 jobs per month) or ramp up (over 300,000 jobs per month) to slow down or speed up tapering before fall 2014.

What Is Priced In?

The stock, bond, and commodities markets appear to have priced in a return to a positive environment for investors consisting of stronger economic and job growth accompanied by a return of some mild inflation.​

What’s the Yellen Surprise?

The Fed’s target for the fed funds rate in the long term is lower than in prior rate hike cycles. The market has already priced in Fed rate hikes beginning in mid-2015. Sustained growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) above 3.0% at any time over the next three years could elicit an earlier start to rate hikes by the Fed and/or more rate hikes once they commence. The Fed’s communication with investors and the public remains muddled, at best.

March Madness in the Markets

As the NCAA basketball tournament gets down to its own sweet sixteen while the rest of March plays out, it is a good time to reflect on the sixteen competing drivers of the markets that may make for an exciting showdown in the weeks and months to come. There will likely be some upsets that result in volatility as these factors face off against each other.

Making a Statement

Markets will soon be asking: When will the Fed raise rates? What measures of inflation, employment, and other economic indicators will the Fed be watching most closely? How fast will rates rise once rate hikes begin? We expect the FOMC to revamp its overly complex statement beginning at this week’s FOMC meeting. We continue to expect the FOMC to taper quantitative easing by $10 billion at each FOMC meeting this year.

Europe’s Big Bet

The ECB made a big bet last week that the Eurozone economy is picking up fast enough to avoid the need for any further stimulus. We are not so sure. Until some key catalysts emerge, the risks to stocks in Europe may outweigh the rewards.

Still Growing, With Limited Wage and Price Pressures

In early 2014, harsh winter weather has replaced policy uncertainty as the biggest weight on the economy. Our Beige Book Barometer decreased to +62 in March 2014 from +76 in January 2014, as weather received 119 mentions. The Affordable Care Act continues to be a key concern for Main Street.

Stocks Go From Great to Good as the Bull Turns Five

After five years, the second most powerful bull market in post-WWII history may be getting a second wind...​

Janet Yellen’s Employment Report

The market will be especially interested in the unemployment rate this month, because just a 0.1% drop to 6.5% pushes the rate to the Fed’s threshold of 6.5%. Yellen made it clear last week that the Fed was in no hurry to raise rates when the unemployment rate crosses the 6.5% threshold. In our view, the Fed is not likely to raise rates until late 2015 or even early 2016.

 
Results: 11 Articles found.
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