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BEIGE BOOK - January 2015

The latest Beige Book reflected a picture of the U.S. economy that was largely unaffected by concerns over dropping oil prices, the 2014 holiday shopping season, global growth scares, and a rising U.S. dollar, although the drop in oil prices was noted as a negative in some districts.

EUROPEAN HEAD FAKE?

The much anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting this week may include a quantitative easing (QE) program announcement. Although we would view a potentially bold QE program from the ECB as an incremental positive, the ongoing growth and deflation challenges in Europe leave us still with a strong preference for the U.S.

DRILLING INTO THE LABOR MARKET

The U.S. economy created another 252,000 net new jobs in December 2014 and 3 million over the course of 2014, with the most net new jobs added since 1999. The labor market still has a long way to go to get back to “normal,” which may keep the Fed on hold for raising rates until late 2015.

THE BRIGHT SIDE OF CHEAP OIL

Earnings season is here and the impact of low oil prices will be the market’s main focus. While we will be closely monitoring the energy sector, we will also be watching the sectors and industries that potentially benefit the most from cheap oil. The consumer discretionary sector and the transports are big potential beneficiaries, supporting our positive views of both groups.

A TALE OF TWO EARNINGS SEASONS

The fourth quarter of 2014 will be a tale of two earnings seasons: the best of times and the worst of times.

 
Results: 88 Articles found.
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