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Janet Yellen’s Employment Report

The market will be especially interested in the unemployment rate this month, because just a 0.1% drop to 6.5% pushes the rate to the Fed’s threshold of 6.5%. Yellen made it clear last week that the Fed was in no hurry to raise rates when the unemployment rate crosses the 6.5% threshold. In our view, the Fed is not likely to raise rates until late 2015 or even early 2016.

The Real Reason for the Rebound

The idea of a change in Congress to a more business-friendly environment may be a welcome thought for many market participants and a behind-the-scenes reason for the rebound.

Residential Recovery Redux

Almost all of the factors supporting an ongoing recovery in housing remain in place, but the rise in rates will likely slow the pace of the recovery somewhat. Many, if not all, of the other housing indicators we watch also suggest ongoing recovery in the housing market in the quarters and years ahead.​

Lies, More Lies, and Charts

One of the reasons that charts forecasting an imminent stock market “crash” are able to make their way around the internet almost every year is that charts can lie.

The Inflation Conversation: Part 2

When policymakers say there is no inflation, they mean the rate of change in the general price level, or the inflation rate, is moderate. Quality adjustments and definitions are two of many reasons for the apparent disconnect in “the inflation conversation.” For policymakers like the Fed, the low rate of increase in the inflation rate expected by the FOMC this year (1.5%) and next year (1.75%) suggests that inflation is “well contained.”

 
Results: 87 Articles found.
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