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QE Ended, Now What?

The Fed ended its bond purchase program last week and the bar has been set fairly high for restarting more QE. The economy is in far better shape today, compared with the start of QE in 2008 and the end of QE1 and QE2. It is probably too soon to know if QE has “worked,” and the better question may be, can the U.S. economy stand on its own without QE? We believe the BOJ and ECB are likely to do more QE.

Recovery Reality

The U.S. economy is improving, and in many cases is back to normal, but it remains stubbornly weak in some areas. “Real world” indicators that point to the health of the economy include crane rental rates and customer traffic in restaurants. Economic uncertainty — likely a drag on economic growth in 2011, 2012, and 2013 — has faded as a concern in 2014, consistent with the Fed’s most recent Beige Book.​

Corporate Calm

We remain confident in corporate America’s ability to generate solid earnings growth in the current global economic environment despite the slowdown in Europe (and to a lesser extent, China). A number of U.S. companies have performed relatively well in Europe, with some not yet seeing signs of a slowdown in their business. The business environment overseas appears to be good enough for companies to largely maintain their outlooks for the rest of the year and into 2015.

Oil Hits the Skids

We believe the oil sell-off is overdone and expect the commodity to find a floor in the low $80s. We expect firming global growth to increase the market’s confidence in global oil demand despite weakness in Europe. Energy service stocks are particularly oversold and may be attractive as the services-intensive U.S. energy renaissance continues.

Modest to Moderate Economic Growth Continues

The latest Beige Book reflects a picture of the U.S. economy that has, thus far, been largely unaffected by current geopolitical headlines.Optimism regarding the economic outlook far outweighed pessimism, as it has for the past 18 months or so.

 
Results: 84 Articles found.
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