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EUROPE: THE ROAD TO RECOVERY?

Although it is too soon to gauge the effectiveness of QE in the Eurozone, key readings and data are beginning to show improvement, and consensus expectations are for continued growth in 2015. However, market participants looking for an immediate and sustained response by the Eurozone economy to QE may be disappointed.

DON’T FRET ABOUT JANUARY EFFECT

The stock market fell in January, causing some to ask whether the so-called January effect means that stocks will fall this year. Recall less than four weeks ago the “first five days” indicator sent a positive stock market signal for 2015. We always put fundamentals first when forecasting stock market direction—and on that score, we believe stocks still look good.

JANUARY EMPLOYMENT REPORT PREVIEW

The market is expecting the economy to add 235,000 net new jobs in January 2015 and for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.6%. Other measures of the health of the labor market — hiring rates, the quit rate, the unemployment rate, and most importantly, wages — still show that the labor market is not yet back to normal.

NO DEFLATING THE U.S. DOLLAR

The latest leg up for the U.S. dollar has been driven by anticipation and arrival of QE by the ECB. The dollar has been strong for a number of reasons, all of them good things. Though not the end all and be all, currency is an important consideration when determining asset allocation.

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH

The pace of growth in the global economy is a key driver of global earnings growth, and ultimately, the performance of global equity markets. The IMF raised its estimate for growth in 2015 for developed economies and sharply lowered its estimate for emerging markets.

 
Results: 98 Articles found.
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