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Beige Book: September 2014

Over the past three Beige Books, the BBB has averaged +100, the highest reading over any three consecutive Beige Books since at least 2005. The latest Beige Book indicates to us that the negative headwinds that have held the U.S. economy back over the past seven years may finally be abating. Health care and the ACA have remained a consistent source of concern among Beige Book respondents, although the impact has faded a bit recently. Despite the recent barrage of bad news on...

Central Bankapalooza

The market is not expecting the ECB to begin QE this week, although other forms of policy support are likely. The data continue to suggest that more aggressive monetary policy from the ECB would have only a muted impact on the real economy unless the fractured banking system can be repaired. Policy divergences among the world’s major central banks are likely to intensify in late 2014 and beyond.

Midterms May Mean More Gains for Stocks

The resolution of election uncertainty — and ending the predominantly negative rhetoric surrounding the campaigns — has historically been a positive for the stock market. We continue to see opportunities for further stock market gains over the course of 2014, based upon fundamentals rather than the potential for sweeping legislative change.

Ready, Set, HIKE!

The first rate hike by the Fed has never been an indication of a market peak. On average, the first rate hike has taken place 37% into the economic cycle (measured peak to peak). The S&P 500 has returned on average, another 58% after the first rate hike (price return) before the market peak for the economic cycle. The initial market reaction to a rate hike is, on average, negative, but the data show it pays to be invested.

Data Dilemma: When Final Isn’t Final

Revisions to GDP don’t often change the overall picture of the health, or lack thereof, of the economy. Despite cutbacks to congressional funding of data collection at the federal level in recent years, the GDP data are a lot more accurate than they used to be. About every five years, the BEA does a “comprehensive revision” to GDP, and at that point, GDP for any specific quarter is just about as final as it will get, as the BEA has 98% of the data it needs to calculate GDP.

 
Results: 81 Articles found.
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