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Gauging Global Growth in 2014 and 2015

Global GDP growth in 2014 remains on track to accelerate versus 2013’s pace, excluding the impact of the weather. The pace of growth in the global economy is a key driver of global earnings growth, and ultimately, the performance of global equity markets. In our view, markets may already be looking ahead to the second half of 2014, and especially the third quarter, to gauge the true underlying pace of global growth.

Earnings Season: A Show About Nothing

Much like the television comedy Seinfeld, which celebrated its 25th anniversary this past Saturday, July 5, 2014, the second quarter earnings season is likely to be “a show about nothing.”

Disconnect?

We continue to expect that U.S. economic growth may rebound to a 3% pace for all of 2014. The June 2014 jobs report was undeniably strong on all fronts, standing in sharp contrast to the weak performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2014. The last time the economy created at least 200,000 jobs per month for five consecutive months was in late 1999 through early 2000, when the U.S. economy was growing between 4.5% and 5.0%.

Investor’s Almanac Field Notes

Similar to a farming almanac, our Investor’s Almanac is a publication containing a guide to patterns, tendencies, and seasonal observations important to growing. The goal of farming is not merely to grow crops, but to sustain living things — investing shares the same goal.

World Cup and World CPI Are Heating Up, Risking Mistakes by Key Players

Just as the World Cup has been heating up, increasing the risk of player mistakes, the world consumer price index (CPI) has also been heating up, complicating the task for policymakers at the world’s central banks and increasing the risk of mistakes that could have market implications.

 
Results: 78 Articles found.
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