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Surprise: Cyclicals May Soon Come Back

The very tight relationship between economic surprises and the performance of cyclicals suggests cyclicals may soon make a comeback relative to more defensive sectors.

Is the Party Over?

At any given time, there are always some bubbly valuations among industries and stocks that are hot. But overall, looking at valuations, the party in the stock market may not be just getting started — but it is not yet close to being over.

Labor Market Report Card

Weather will still be a factor in the March employment data & the markets may give the economy another “free pass” for yet another potentially weak jobs report. In our view, the Fed would have to see a sharp slowdown (less than 50,000 jobs per month) or ramp up (over 300,000 jobs per month) to slow down or speed up tapering before fall 2014.

What Is Priced In?

The stock, bond, and commodities markets appear to have priced in a return to a positive environment for investors consisting of stronger economic and job growth accompanied by a return of some mild inflation.​

What’s the Yellen Surprise?

The Fed’s target for the fed funds rate in the long term is lower than in prior rate hike cycles. The market has already priced in Fed rate hikes beginning in mid-2015. Sustained growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) above 3.0% at any time over the next three years could elicit an earlier start to rate hikes by the Fed and/or more rate hikes once they commence. The Fed’s communication with investors and the public remains muddled, at best.

 
Results: 79 Articles found.
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