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HAS ANYTHING CHANGED?

A strong July employment report caused Treasury yields to spike higher, but the broader message from the bond market has not changed. Improvement in economic data will need to exhibit greater consistency to exert meaningful upside pressure to bond yields.

EARNINGS UPDATE: WE WERE HOPING FOR MORE

We were hoping for more out of corporate America this earnings season. Although the numbers have not been great, there have been some encouraging signs. The tech sector has produced solid results and forward estimates have been resilient.

EUROPEAN BANKS: NEITHER A BORROWER NOR LENDER BE

Banks everywhere are under pressure from the low interest rate environment. Corporate financing in Europe goes through banks, not the capital markets, making banks more important to the system. Monetary policy in Europe has just begun to increase bank lending, which historically has resulted in higher stock prices for banks, though the full impact of negative interest rates is difficult to determine.

HIGH-YIELD RALLY CONTINUES DESPITE HEADWINDS

High-yield has continued to rally recently despite weaker oil prices. Investors can still potentially benefit from a small allocation due to the asset class’s notable yield in a low-yield environment. Caution remains warranted, as oil may again drive the market.

SEE YOU IN SEPTEMBER?

We continue to expect that the Fed won’t raise rates until the December 2016 meeting, but a potential path to a September hike also exists. Key items to watch for a possible September hike include U.S. manufacturing, financial conditions, the labor market, wage inflation, foreign central banks, and comments from key Fed officials.

 
Results: 56 Articles found.