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FOREIGN FACTORS

Foreign buying of U.S. bonds has slowed over recent years but remains a firm source of demand in the domestic bond market. Foreign purchases are likely to continue to take a backseat to economic growth and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations as a driver of bond prices and yields.

SIZING UP SMALL CAPS

The Russell 2000 Index hit a fresh all-time high last week (on tax day, April 15, 2015) and has outpaced large caps by 205 basis points (2.05%) year to date. Although valuations are on the high side, the factors that have driven recent small cap strength, in our view, remain largely intact. Small cap technicals appear bullish, with positive relative strength and an upward sloping 40-week moving average.​

BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET 4/20/15

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing at a pace that is at or above its long-term trend, and that some upward pressure on wages is beginning to emerge. Optimism regarding the economic outlook far outweighed pessimism throughout the Beige Book as it has for the

SOFT START TO Q2

Bonds started the second quarter on a weak note as investors anticipate economic improvement during the second quarter. However, bond market pricing indicates the Fed may never get back to “normal” and that rates will remain lower for longer. We expect yields to start to move higher in the second quarter, but until more clarity develops, bonds yields may drift at the lower end of their recent range.​

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH 4/13/15

The market continues to expect that global GDP growth will accelerate in 2015, 2016, and 2017, aided by lower oil prices and stimulus from the BOJ and the ECB, two of the three leading central banks in the world. The prospect for another year of decelerating growth in emerging markets remains a concern for some investors, who may still be waiting (in vain) for China to post 10 – 12% growth rates, as it consistently did during the early to mid-2000s.

 
Results: 85 Articles found.