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Portfolio Compass 3/25/15

A snapshot of LPL Financial Research’s views on equity, equity sectors, fixed income, and alternative asset classes. This biweekly publication illustrates our current views and will change as needed over a 3- to 12-month time horizon.

BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO

The high-yield energy sector has kept pace with the broader high-yield bond market in 2015 even as oil prices weakened, a notable difference from 2014. Although we don’t believe the high-yield bond market will return to the June 2014 peak, the current yield spread may still represent good value given still strong corporate fundamentals and low defaults.

THE DOLLAR’S RIPPLE EFFECT

Using intermarket analysis is important to reduce the risk of missing vital directional clues within the financial markets. Recently, a strong U.S. dollar has created headwinds for the euro, crude oil, and commodity-sensitive emerging markets.

FORECAST FOR CLEAR SKIES: LEI SHOWS LOW ODDS OF RECESSION

The outcome of last week’s FOMC meeting confirmed our long-held view that the Fed would keep rates “lower for longer.” A report that may have been overlooked by financial market participants last week is the LEI, which is designed to predict the future path of the economy. The LEI suggests the risk of recession in the next 12 months is negligible (4%), but not zero.

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Results: 205 Articles found.