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No Fooling, Good Quarter for Bonds

Bond prices rose across the board following a difficult 2013 and yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing the first quarter 0.3% lower. At a 1.8% quarterly return for the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, the pace of bond performance is unsustainable, and we continue to suggest a defensive posture against rising interest rates in the bond market with an emphasis on more economically sensitive sectors.

Is the Party Over?

At any given time, there are always some bubbly valuations among industries and stocks that are hot. But overall, looking at valuations, the party in the stock market may not be just getting started — but it is not yet close to being over.

Labor Market Report Card

Weather will still be a factor in the March employment data & the markets may give the economy another “free pass” for yet another potentially weak jobs report. In our view, the Fed would have to see a sharp slowdown (less than 50,000 jobs per month) or ramp up (over 300,000 jobs per month) to slow down or speed up tapering before fall 2014.

Current Conditions Index 3/26/14

The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool.

Giving Credit to High-Yield Credit

High-yield bond valuations remain elevated for a good reason — strong credit quality and low defaults continue to support the sector. A closer look at underlying credit quality indicates high-yield bond prices may remain well-supported for most of 2014. We still find lower-rated high-yield bonds and bank loans offering some attractive opportunities in the bond market for 2014.

 
Results: 236 Articles found.